USD/JPY: Trading the US New Home Sales

US New Home Sales indicator is released monthly, and provides analysts with important data the health and direction of the housing sector. A higher reading than the market prediction is bullish for the dollar.

Indicator Background

US New Home Sales provides analysts and investors with a snapshot of the strength of the US housing market, one of the most important sectors of the economy. As a house is likely to be the largest purchase that a consumer will make, this indicator also is used to measure US consumer spending and confidence.

The October release rose to 389 thousand, which was slightly above the estimate of 386K. The markets are not expecting a change this month, with a forecast of 387K. Will the November reading surprise with a stronger reading than expected?

Sentiments and levels

After another surge higher, the USD/JPY could once again take a break for some consolidation. The positive outcome over the Greek debt talks has already priced in. So, there isn’t much room to buy the pair on a deal, while there’s more room on the downside. So, the overall sentiment has turned from bullish to neutral on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 84.20, 83.34, 82.87, 81.80, 81.43 and 80.70.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 383K to 391K: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.

  2. Above expectations: 392K to 396K: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.

  3. Well above expectations: Above 396K: A sharp increase could propel the pair above a second resistance line.

  4. Below expectations: 376K to 382K: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.

  5. Well below expectations: Below 376K. In this outcome, the pair would likely break two or more support levels.

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