Following the deceleration in global economic activity that lasted from 2011 through 2013, global growth appears to have strengthened in the first half of this year. Although we do not have a good measure of quarterly GDP growth on a global basis, an indicator of growth in global industrial production (IP) strengthened from a year-over-year rate of roughly 1 percent during summer 2013 to almost 4 percent earlier this year. However, growth in global IP appears to have topped out recently, and we do not expect a return anytime soon to the 4 percent to 5 percent real GDP growth rates that characterized the global economy between 2004 and 2007.
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