S&P 500, long term very bearish

In the S&P 500, still very bearish over the longer term (next 9-12 months or more) and with eventual declines all the way back to the March 2007 low at 667 and even below favored. Note that the market continues to form a huge head and shoulders pattern for over the last 12 year, testing the area of the right shoulder at the May 2nd high at 1371. Also the fall from the Oct 2007 high at 1576 occurred in 5 waves (wave 5, downside not "complete"), while the upmove from the march 2009 low at 667 occurred in 3 (A-B-C, a correction), and with both adding to the view of eventual declines back to 667 and below (see weekly chart below). But there will no doubt be good sized, countertrend bounces along the way lower (as seen from the Oct 4th low at 1075), while there is also scope for a more extended period of topping nearby (another month or 2), before resuming the bigger picture decline. So for now, would maintain the longer term bearish bias that was put in place on Aug 19th at 1140. Longer term support is seen in that whole 1060/75 area (also the base of the 3 year bullish channel) and 1015/25 (50% retracement from the 667 low).

Nearer term, the market is down from the Oct 27th high at 1292, and bearish "false break" of the 1272/77 resistance area (broken neckline of the smaller head and shoulders pattern from last Feb, 200 day moving average, see daily chart/2nd chart below). Also with the market overbought after the last few weeks of sharp gains and a very negative longer term outlook (see above), further declines toward 1183/86 (50% from the Oct 4th low at 1075), the 1075 low and eventually below is favored. Sold on the Oct 31st close below the bullish trendline from the low (then at 1265, closed at 1253), and for now would stop on a close above the bearish trendline from July (currently at 1287/90). But there is some scope for a more extended period of wide ranging (couple of months or more), and as part of a very long term topping (see above), so will want to switch to a more aggressive stop on further, nearby declines (would switch to a stop on a close above the bearish trendline from the Oct high once the market closes below the recent, 1215 low).



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