FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 0.9402/05...Trading at the lower end of the 0.9520-380 range
R: 0.9460 / 0.9515
S: 0.9400-375 / 0.9330 / 0.9300

Swiss has dipped towards its lower end of the 0.9520-380 range as the good performance in the Euro continues. But both Euro and Swiss are at the upper and lower end of their trading ranges respectively. Chances of Swiss breaking below 0.9380 remain, after which we can see it moving lower towards 0.9350 and 0.9300 in the immediate term. Also the break of this range on the down side is expected to make the medium term outlook bearish. We are not sure if we can see the range breaking today or will it hold till the next meeting of the Euro ministers to decide on the Greece bailout which is scheduled on Monday. On a rise it is expected to face resistance at 0.9460, we would avoid taking positions while it continues to trade in this range.

 GBP-USD @ 1.5936/39...Rise to 1.6000 looks likely
R: 1.5990-6000 / 1.6080
S: 1.5890-80 / 1.5840-20 /

The pair is currently trading above its 100 EMA on the daily charts at 1.5930 and if continues to trade above it can move further towards 1.5970-6000. Having said that Cable continues to look bearish (Medium term) on the weekly charts but before that a rise to 1.6000-10 looks likely. Dips are expected to find good support at 1.5890-80. We would be looking for selling opportunities after the pair takes resistance on the rise near 1.6000.

 AUD-USD @ 1.0363/66...Continues to trade in the 1.0480-280 range
R: 1.0380 / 1.0430 /
S: 1.0345 / 1.0280 / 1.0225

Aussie continues to trade in the 1.0480-280 range and in the intra day it found support near 1.0345 levels from where it has bounced back. The outlook remains mixed in the 1.0480-280 range but a rise towards 1.0380 and 1.0430 cannot be ruled out till it holds on to 1.0345 support. But at the same time if it manages to close the day near current levels the daily candle will start looking bearish and then for a dip towards the lower end of the range will look quite likely. My bias would be for a dip towards the lower end of the range.

Happy Trading!

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