During the European morning, the USD-index retraced some of yesterdays’ US Empire & Industrial Production inspired losses which weighed on the EUR, with EUR/GBP breaking back below the low printed yesterday at 0.7167. GBP/USD traded steady with attention turning to tonight’s UK Election debate which will be close watched as the market looks to observe any impact on the latest election polls.
However, heading into the North American crossover USD pared its entire earlier gains, with this week's disappointing data releases leading some participants to take June off the table for Fed rate lift-off. Misery continued for the greenback as further tier-1 releases out of the US echoed downbeat data from earlier this week, with US Housing Starts (926K vs. Exp. 1040K ) and Building Permits (1039K vs. Exp. 1081K) both missing estimates and US Initial Jobless Claims (294K vs. Exp. 280K) showing a larger than expected rise. The weakness in the USD offset losses in the EUR from heightened concerns over Greece, with yesterday’s downgrade from S&P being followed by comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble, who downplayed expectations for a breakthrough in Greek/Eurogroup negotiations by saying ‘nobody expects that there will be a solution.
Looking ahead, key data releases tomorrow include UK jobs report, Eurozone, US, and Canadian CPI, as well as Canadian Retail Sales, US University of Michigan Sentiment and Leading Index. Finally, ECB’s Weidman will be holding a press briefing alongside German Finance Minister Schaeuble, which could reveal more on the ongoing situation in Greece.
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EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.