Forex Weekly Outlook – July 4-8

Important employment figures from the US including Non-Farm Payrolls, Canadian and Australian employment data together with rate decision in the Euro-Zone, Britain and Australia are this week’s market-movers. Here are the major events lined up for us.

Last week Greek legislators voted in favor of the austerity measures posed by the international community as a provision for handing the much needed emergency loan. The Euro/dollar pair strengthened after the vote despite spreading riots in Greece.

Let’s Start

  1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index increased to 54.6 in May following 53.7 in April slightly above expectations of a 54.0 reading indicating growth in the mom-manufacturing sector. This encouraging result came after the disappointing NFP reading. A small decrease to 54.0 is predicted now. Will we have a positive surprise here, like we had with the manufacturing sector?
  2. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday 22:45. New Zealand’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% in the forth quarter of 2010 above the 0.1% growth expected. GDP is expected to grow further amid rapid major export markets and improvement of domestic economic conditions. A rise to 0.3% is expected.
  3. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. The Australian market added 7,800 jobs in May following a contraction of 22,100 jobs in the previous month but below the 25,000 increase expected. Meantime, unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9%. An increase of 15,300 jobs is expected with the same unemployment rate of 4.9%.
  4. British rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England left its benchmark rate at 0.5% for the 27th consecutive month also maintained £200bn quantitative easing program unchanged. Ben Broadbent replaced Andrew Sentence a strong supporter of rate hikes. The benchmark rate is expected to remain 0.50%.
  5. Euro-Zone Rate decision, Thursday, 11:45. The European Central Bank maintained its interest rate unchanged at 1.25% on June but gave room for a possible rate hike for the coming rate decision. Meanwhile the Euro continues to drop as the tension over the Greek debt builds up. A rate hike to 1.50% is expected now.
  6. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:15. The US private sector added only 38,000 jobs in May well below the 177,000 job gain expected and vs. 179,000 in the previous month. However the official Non-Farm Payrolls report is better than expected, showing a nice increase of 244,000 jobs. A climb of 66,000 positions is expected.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims declined by a mere 1,000 to 428,000. Economists expected claims to decrease to 420,000. The slowdown in growth also affects the job market and will also decrease consumer spending. A drop to 421,000 is predicted.
  8. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 11:00. Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% in May from 7.6% after the impressive rise in the number of new jobs reaching 22,300. Both readings were above expectations indicating improvement in the Canadian job market. A smaller gain of 12,700 new jobs is forecasted with unemployment rate maintained at 7.4%. The Canadian economy has stalled.
  9. US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 12:30. Nonfarm payroll employment made a soft increase of 54,000 jobs, following a revised 232,000 climb in April. There was a flat trend in the job market although wage growth improved. A positive increase of 87,000 jobs is expected.
  10. US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. US jobless rate increased to 9.1% amid lower hiring together with high energy prices and the effects of Japan’s earthquake indicating a general slowdown in the US economy. Unemployment rate is expected to remain 9.1%.

*All times are GMT.

 That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
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