Today at 14:30 CET we expect CRS/Core Retail Sales to be published in the United States. The index is released monthly by the Census Bureau and indicates a relative change in the volume of retail sales, excluding automobiles (20% of the total volume). CRS estimates consumer spending. It is based on retail stores sampling of different types and sizes. This indicator measures consumer confidence, so it is of considerable interest for long-term investors. We deem the news released today would cause volatility momentum of the US dollar against the most liquid currencies, including euro.
Here we consider EUR/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is consolidated inside the bearish triangle. The market neutrality trend will be finished with the release of new significant statistics. The triangle bias is also confirmed by ParabolicSAR historical values that move along the upper triangle side. At the same time there is a bullish divergence on the RSI-Bars oscillator chart: it creates a conflicting picture of technical analysis. In this situation, we need to consider both cases. It is recommended to place two pending orders, Buy Stop and Sell Stop, near the sideways channel borders. We emphasize that channel levels 1.17456 and 1.18791 are confirmed by DonchianChannel and Bill Williams fractals. The upper level is further strengthened by bearish “double top” pattern.
Risk mitigation is to be placed at the opposite levels. After order execution, another one may be cancelled. Stop Loss is to be moved after Parabolic values near the next fractal low (long position), or fractal high (short position). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
- Position Buy
- Buy stop above 1.18791
- Stop loss below 1.17456
- Position Sell
- Sell stop below 1.17456
- Stop loss above 1.18791
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