Trade Plan to Sell; Target: So, let's get ready for a sell, which would be in-line with the bearish outlook in the short and medium-term. That means our bearish outlook can be below the 1.3242 low on the week. The medium-term downside risk is to the Sept. 2013 low at 1.31-1.3105, but since we are trading the 1H chart, we should limit the bearish outlook first to the 1.32-1.3210 area.
Stop-Loss: Now if price breaks above 1.3288, there could be sellers again at 1.33, but a break above this level could open up a more significant consolidation/bullish correction scenario. So let's set up a stop loss at 1.3310.
Entry: Now, a break below 1.3270 should clear below the 8/21 rising trendline and open up the bearish continuation scenario. Now, if this happens during the Asian session, and is very weak, let's wait for a pullback because the 1.3260 support/resistance pivot might have some buyers. Then, if price fails to push back above 1.3280, let's plan a short entry at 1.3270.
Assessment of Reward to Risk:
Stop-loss would be 1.3310-1.3270 = 40 pips.
Potential Target Reward is 1.3270-1.3210 = 60 pips, or 70 pips if the target is 1.32.
This is a conservative target, so the below 2:1 reward to risk can be acceptable, especially because the technical and fundamental factors point to a bearish EUR/USD, and there has not been any signs of a bullish correction - that is unless there is a break above 1.33.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800, as traders lack directional impetus amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold ends Q1 2024 at record highs, what’s next?
Gold is sitting at an all-time high of $2,236, lacking a trading impetus amid holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. Most major world markets, including the United States are closed in observance of Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued.
Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP
Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days.
US core PCE inflation set to ease in February on month as Federal Reserve rate cut bets for June mount
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.