The ECB representatives said that the monetary policy easing can wait

In the absence of significant economic data from the U.S., investors decided to recall on Monday that Friday's data on the U.S. labor market were worse than the preliminary forecasts. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDIDX) has greatly decreased. In addition, it helped strengthening of the Euro (EURUSD). Its share in the dollar index is 57.6 %. Today the United States will not have any significant macroeconomic indicators out. However, there will be the press conference of regional Fed directors held, that may affect the exchange rate. Narayana Kocherlakota will speak at 18:30 CET and Charles Plosser at 19-45 CET.

The ECB Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny and Yves Mersch suggested on Monday that significant stimulus of the European economy is not necessarily needed at the moment. According to them, there is a long way between intentions and concrete actions to start the QE program. Foreign exchange market reacted to those statements with growth (strengthening) of the Euro. Meanwhile, it should be noted that in the new ECB plans are to increase inflation to 1.7% by the end of 2016 and to keep it slightly below 2% for a long time. We believe that this bank will still have to take monetary measures for that. Besides printing money it can lower the interest rate, which now stands at 0.25%. In any way, any ECB steps to increase inflation may contribute to weakening of the Euro. The question is when it will go from words to deeds. Recall that the regular meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on April 16. This week, the significant economic information on the Euro will be released only on Thursday and Friday.

The Japanese Yen (USDJPY) continued to strengthen (fall in the chart). As it was expected, the Bank of Japan did not increase the money issue program for the ransom of Japanese government bonds. Note that this policy is called the Quantitative Easing and it was carried only in four major countries in the world: U.S., UK, European Union and Japan. The current BOJ limit is 60-70 trn. Yen per year ($ 582-679 B.)

The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) continued to strengthen and refreshed highs of more than four months. Meanwhile, today's macroeconomic data, as expected, were neutral. The Index of business conditions rose, while the index of business confidence fell to the lowest level in eight months. Tomorrow morning at 1-30 and 2-30 CET we will find out will about more important economic data: Consumer Confidence and Mortgage indices for February. In our opinion, the preliminary forecasts are moderately negative and may even cause the correction of the Australian Dollar. However, we do not expect global price movements, as the more significant Australian indicators will appear on Thursday.

The British Pound (GBPUSD) and Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) both strengthened yesterday in the absence of significant economic news. Investors reacted positively to the outcome of the referendum on the of t Quebec Canadian province independence. They believe that a referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom also has no significant results yet. Today at 13-15 and 13-30 CET we will see the Canadian real estate market data. The UK will announce the industrial production index at 9:30 CET. We believe that all the preliminary forecasts are negative.

China has approved the import of maize (Corn) from Brazil since the beginning of this month. We do not exclude that it may slightly reduce its cost in the world market. Recall that China rejected 1 million tons of the U.S. genetically modified corn, which increased its demand for conventional seed from Argentina and Thailand. The supply from these two countries was allowed previously. As it was expected, the Chinese imports in the season 2013/2014 was revised upwards to 7 million tons from 3 million tons a season earlier. Of this amount, the United States want to put 4 million tons for supply. Brazil is the world's second largest corn producer after the U.S. and it is going to export 20 million tons of grain this agricultural season and the total yield is forecasted at 80 million tons. That means, the shortage of maize in the world is not expected for now. Recall that tomorrow at 18-15 CET we will see the USDA monthly review which will forecast the main indicators for the Corn, Wheat and the Soyb. In our opinion, the data on soybean stocks from the last year's harvest the may be most interesting. Market participants do not exclude their reduction that may the growth of quotations. Previously, China has approved the purchase of transgenic soybean containing the Intacta RR2 gene and bought a significant amount in the United States. In addition, the USDA may reduce its wheat crop forecast due to bad weather conditions. In this case, it can also be positive for the price performance