Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/JPY: Mar 3, 2015

  DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 02 Mar 2015   23:43GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
119.98

55 HR EMA
119.70

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
66

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
121.19 - 80.9% proj. of 116.73-120.48 fm 118.20
120.83 - Dec 23 high
120.48 - Feb high (Feb 11)

Support
119.66 - Y'day's European low
119.09 - Last Thur's Asian high (now sup)
118.62 - Last Wed's low

. USD/JPY - 120.18... The greenback gained to 119.96 at Asian open on Mon, then marginally higher to 119.97 in early European morning b4 retreating to 119.66 ahead of NY open. However, renewed buying there lifted the pair to session highs of 120.19 in New York afternoon on rising U.S. treasury yields.

. Broad outlook remains similar to previous updates where dlr's 'triangle' senario fm 2014 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 (Dec) shud continue ahead of Fri's release of U.S. payrolls. To recap, early selloff fm 121.85 to 115.85 marked the terminus of the a-leg, then rebound to 120.83 was the b-leg top (also pivotal res), subsequent fall to 115.85 was the c-leg bottom n then rebound to 120.48 was the d-leg top. If this triangle pattern holds true, decline fm 120.48 is the 'final' e-leg fall which wud head to 117.62 (being 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48) but 116.66 (Feb low) shud remain intact. A daily close abv 120.83 signals an 'upside break' has occured, then dlr wud re-test 121.85, break wud extend to proj. obj. at 123.85/90 in late Mar.

. Today, we are holding a long position entered y'day for 120.45 n only below 119.51 wud indicate near term rise fm 118.20 has made a top, risk 119.09.