- Markets watchful of Greece
- Greek saber rattling supports Gilts and Bunds
- Yen trades at eight-year low to the dollar
- Commodity prices fall on dollar outlook
After a three-day weekend, market participants jumped straight back into the fray to find the U.S. dollar rising on gains fueled by last Friday’s U.S. consumer-price index surprise, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that a rate hike remains on the cards for this year.
In Europe, dealers return to the grindstone where the Greek debt dance has European capital markets starting this shortened trading week on the back foot. The single unit trades at new one-month lows outright (€1.0890), while German and U.K. debt rallies on Greek risk aversion trading, and on the surprise weekend Spanish vote results. Spanish yields have backed up after a negative reaction to the region polls in Spain where a strong showing for the opposition anti-austerity parties is a clear threat to the incumbent government and to the eurozone periphery’s stability.
Market worries that Greece will be incapable of fulfilling its debt obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) next week will only continue to weigh on the EUR in the short term, while U.S. bond yields will favor the dollar against a host of Group of 10 currencies. JPY trades at an eight-year low (¥122.79). It seems that the recent stability in the pair over the past few months had greatly reduce speculative yen shorts — the market wants to play catch-up to the potential upside momentum due to U.S. and Japanese interest rate differentials.
Investors are looking ahead to this morning’s U.S. data menu (durable goods and new home sales) for key touch point guidance. Both reports are expected to show improvement over the previous months readings, which would only add value to the dominant current trading strategies. The market is most interested in the U.S. housing data points — was last week’s surge in starts and permits a coincidence or not for the housing sector?
Euro’s Freefall Toward Parity
The two-prong attack on the EUR, Greek saber rattling, and stronger U.S. domestic data has the unit -0.7% lower in overnight trading and threatening to build up further momentum to test its multiyear lows sub-€1.05. The EUR is down close to -10% this year and -20% over the past 12 months.
Greek two-year yields have climbed a further +1.3 basis points to +23.9% amid growing fears over a default. Greek officials continue to take the hard stance by raising doubts over whether they will have enough money to fulfill its debt obligations to the IMF next month (€1.6 billion). What’s making the situation worse is the internal fighting within the Greek government over creditors’ conditions. Some officials are willing to accept certain terms while others are not.
In Spain, bond prices reveal a similar scenario. Bonos (Spanish bonds) have come under further pressure from the weekend’s election results, which showed the ruling Popular Party lose big in municipal elections to the anti-austerity Podemos Party (Spanish 10-year yields climbed +8 basis points to +1.85%). It’s the reason why European officials and policymakers will only ever take a hardline stance approach to Greece — they do not want to legitimize Athens’ claims, or set a precedent that cannot be unwound that favors anti-austerity party claims.
Both U.K. Gilts and German Bunds, which are considered to be safe-haven assets to a degree, are benefitting from the periphery debt market underperformance. Bunds are down -6 basis points to +0.55% while 10-year Gilts are trading at +1.86%. It’s no surprise to see that U.S. Treasurys are being dragged along for the ride. U.S. 10s currently yield +2.18%, much tighter than this month’s low-yield print of +2.32% amid the global sovereign yield saga.
Commodities Fall on Dollar’s Direction
The USD remains the best of a ‘bad lot’ for most traders. Mixed domestic data, neutral comments from Yellen, and risk aversion strategies certainly outweigh the current European-Greek saga, while a weaker China and Japan require lower currency values. Nevertheless, a dominant dollar strategy will weigh heavily on commodity prices and their affiliated currency pairs (CAD, AUD, NZD).
Again this morning, crude oil trades under pressure (Brent -0.8% to $65.02 and West Texas -0.7% to +$59.29), while the yellow metal seeks to discover what lies below the psychological $1.12 handle (-1% to $1,194.5). The recent upward strength for oil was supported mostly by cuts in production (supply gluts remain an ongoing concern) and the mighty dollar shakeout over the past six weeks rather than on sustainable economic growth. With the USD finding favor, and a growing concern for both crude and gold fundamentals, being long this sector may require some nimble trading in the short term.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0800 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades slightly below 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.