Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
The ECB lending survey for Q2 provided some encouraging news for the euro economy.
For the first time since 2007 lending standards were eased for all sectors (consumers, enterprises and housing) and standards are expected to be eased further in Q3.
Lending standards have been eased for two quarters in a row now for consumer credit.
Loan demand continues to rise for all sectors and is expected to increase at a similar pace in Q3.
Importantly this has taken place before the new measures (TLTRO) from the ECB have kicked in and it suggests that the main pillar missing in the euro recovery – loan growth – may soon start to gradually support the euro economy. We look for credit growth to contribute to a strengthening of domestic demand in the euro recovery going into H2 and 2015. Improvement in the US and China and a weakening of the euro will give additional support to the export sectors as well.
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