Thu Lan Nguyen, FX Strategist at Commerzbank AG, on AUD
What will be the main drivers for AUD during the same period?
I believe that the AUD will continue to weaken on a broad basis in the first quarter of this year as lower commodity prices and a weaker Chinese economy continue to provide considerable headwinds for the Australian economy as well as inflation. And this in turn should keep speculation regarding further rate cuts by the RBA up. In addition to that, we see a good chance that the Fed will act on the continued recovery of the US economy, particularly the strong labour market, and hike its key rate further in March.
What performance do you expect from the Australian Dollar versus its major counterparts during the 1st quarter of 2016?
We expect the AUD to mainly weaken against the USD as monetary divergence is most pronounced in this case. The AUD will fare a little better against the EUR, as the ECB has already demonstrated that it is reluctant to ease monetary policy more aggressively, although inflation continues to disappoint. Against this background, we do not expect any excessive EUR weakness in the foreseeable future.
What are your forecasts for AUD/USD, AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY for the Q1 of 2016?
We expect the AUD/USD currency pair to be around 0.68 levels and the AUD/NZD we anticipate to reach 1.10 levels. Talking about the AUD/JPY currency pair, we believe it will be rolling up around 86 levels.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.