TradeTheNews.com Staff
TradeTheNews.com
Notes/Observations
- Price action now seeing an active start following the Easter break
- Ericsson Reports Q1 Net SEK2.12B v SEK2.23Be, Op SEK2.6B v SEK3.5Be, Rev SEK47.5B v SEK50.8Be; both gross and op margins increased. Sales supported by mobile broadband.
- ARM Holdings Reports Q1 Pretax £97.1M v £96Me, Op Profit £76.3M v £64.9M y/y, Rev £186.7M v £170.3M y/y; Expects semiconductor industry to improve in H2
- (JP) Bank of Japan semi-annual Financial System Report: Japan financial system stable on the whole, but banks could have a ¥5.6T loss if interest rates rise by 100bps (note: the est given in Oct was ¥6.0T)
- Spot gold remains little changed early in European session, around $1,284/oz; Chinese buyers seen on dips
- (PT) Portugal PM Coelho: Portugal growth prospects are more robust at this time; country is now able to finance itself in the market - comments from Lisbon
- (AU) Australia Q1 CPI falls to a 3-quarter low (Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8%e)
- (CN) China Apr Preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the 4th straight month: (48.3 v 48.3e)
- Major European PMI data continues to come in mixed (France misses expectations while Germany and Euro Zone beat)
- Australia Q1 CPI was well below estimates, remaining in the 2-3% RBA target range on headline basis and posting a 1-year low on Q/Q Trimmed Mean (core) basis. lower CPI gives RBA more room to preserve its neutral stance for longer and negates expectations of an inevitable rate hike to forestall accelerating property prices
Equities
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed following Tuesday's gains, Upcoming US corporate earnings (Boeing, PG, EMC, Dow Chemical, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman), Bankinter kicks off earnings season for Spanish Banks, Ericsson lower on weaker than expected results , French defense names decline after results (Safran, Zodiac), Euro Zone advance PMI above est
- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%, FTSE 100 flat at 6,681, DAX -0.3% at 9,574, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,466, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 10,456, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 21,900, SMI +0.3% at 8,483, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,875]
By Sector
- Consumer Staples [Associated British Foods ABF.UK +8% (H1 profits above ests, raised dividend)]
- Basic Material Resources [Antofagasta ANTO.UK -6% (ex-dividend)]
- Industrial [Safran SAF.FR -2% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Utilities [Drax Group DRX.UK -9% (contract update), Centrica CNA.UK -1% (ex dividend)]
- Telecom [Ericsson ERICB.SE -4% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Energy [Vopak VPK.NL -7% (cautious outlook)]
- Technology [Melexis MELE.BE +10% (raised outlook); Arm Holdings ARM.UK -2% (weakness in Q1 royalty sales)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -0.8%, Industrials -0.7%, Telecom -0.4%, Utilities -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%; Financials +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Energy flat]
Currencies/Fixed Income
- Dealers were hoping that the Eurozone PMI releases would help break the Euro out of its recent trading range. However, for the time being EUR/USD continued to remain locked in its recent 200 pip April range. The Euro tried initially to break higher but failed to get close to the 1.3870 resistance area.
- GBP/USD was unable to make fresh 5-year highs after BOE minutes that saw downward pressure on the inflation front
- Goldman FX Strategists stated that China FX Reserve accumulation to slow but it would not drag down the greenback. Pick up in US growth might push interest rates higher and support USD
- USD/RUB: (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor by 5 kopecks to 36.35-43.35 in dollar/euro basket
- (GR) National Bank of Greece preparing for 5-yr bond offering (longest dated since 2009); Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Morgan Stanley meeting with possible buyers in London - Greek press
Economic Data
- (FR) France Apr Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 v 51.9e; Services PMI: 50.3 v 51.3e; Composite PMI: 50.5 v 51.8 prior
- (EU) ECB €138M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €301.0M prior; €26.6B parked in deposit facility vs. €30.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BoT) left its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected
- (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 53.8e; Services PMI: 55.0 v 53.3e; Composite PMI: 56.3 v 54.0e
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar CPI Core M/M: 1.2% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Preliminary Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 53.0e; Services PMI: 53.1 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 54.0 v 53.0e
- (UK) BOE voted 9-0 (unanimous) to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) BOE voted 9-0 (unanimous) to maintain Asset Purchase Target at £375B
- (UK) Mar Public Finances (PSNCR): £15.7B v £17.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: £6.7B v £11.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £4.9B v £8.5Be
- (EU) Euro Zone 2013 Govt Debt/GDP Ratio: 92.6% v 90.7% prior (record amount)
Looking Ahead
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (FR) France to update its growth forecasts
- (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB20B in 2019 and 2023 OFZ bonds
- (HU) Hungary switch-auction for bonds
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €750M in 10-year bonds
- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 7e v 6 prior; Selling Prices: 10e v 12 prior; Business Optimism: 25e v 21 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2019, 2025 and 2036 bonds
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell combined PLN6-10B in 2016 and 2018 Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 18th: No est v +4.3% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 1.3% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 09:00 (FI) Finland Party Leaders' EU Debate in Helsinki
- 09:45 (US) Apr Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 56.0e v 55.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar New Home Sales: 450Ke v 440K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 ((PL) EU President Van Rompuy with Poland PM Tusk in Brussels
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.00-2.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flow
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Fin Min Oliver speaks to Montreal Board of Trade
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes
- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.00%
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