Major European PMI data comes in better than expected and aids risk appetite

Notes/Observations

- China Jan HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI contracts fir first time in six month (49.6 v 50.3e

- Australia Jan Consumer Inflation Expectation hits a 5-month high (2.3% v 2.1% prior)

- Major European PMI data comes in better than expected and aids risk appetite

Economic Data

- (DE) Germany Nov Construction Orders NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -8.3% v +5.5% prior

- (FR) France Jan Business Confidence: 94 v 95e; Manufacturing Confidence: 100 v 100e; Production Outlook Indicator: -5 v -9e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 9 v 5 prior; Business Survey Overall Demand: -1 v +1 prior

- (TW) Taiwan Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.1% v 1.9%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 3.7% v 1.6%e

- (FR) France Jan Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 48.8v 47.5e; PMI Services: v 48.6 v 48.1e

- (ES) Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate: 26.0% v 26.0%e

- (NL) Netherlands Jan Consumer Confidence: 6.3 v 4.0e

- (EU) ECB €141M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €162M prior; €34.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €27.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions

- (DE) Germany Jan Advance PMI Manufacturing: 56.3 v 54.6e; PMI Services: 53.6 v 54.0e

- (SE) Sweden Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.0% v 7.9%e

- (NL) Netherlands Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.3%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Advance PMI Manufacturing: 53.9 v 53.0e (highest since May 2011); PMI Services: 51.9 v 51.4e (four-month high); PMI Composite: 53.2 v 52.5e

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Current Account Seasonally Adj: €23.5B v €21.8B prior; Current Account NSA: €27.4B v €26.2B prior

- (IT) Italy Dec non-EU trade balance: +€3.4B v +€2.4B prior - Istat

Fixed Income:

(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold toal €7.94B vs. €7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2016, 2018 and 2019 Oats

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

***Equities**

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,822, DAX -0.1% at 9,707, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,333, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10,321, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 20,073, SMI +0.3% at 8,493, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 1,833]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets trade mixed following weakness in Asia, Pearson declines on cautious outlook, French banks gain on broker commentary, Spanish banks continue to report better than expected results (Sabadell), Swiss banks little impacted by previously speculated property market measures, Logitech sharply higher on better than expected results , Weaker than expected China PMI, France PMI above ests while German PMI mixed

By Sector

- Healthcare [Bioallance BIO.FR +11% (positive FDA decision); Almirall ALM.ES -3% (share placement)]

- Basic Materials/Resources [Lanxess LXS.DE -2% (broker commentary), Lonza LONN.CH -1% (FY sales below ests), Akzo Nobel AKZA.NL -1% (broker commentary)]

- Consumer Discretionary [Delhaize DELB.BE +7% (Q4 organic growth 3.2%), Celesio CLS1.DE +2% (hopes that Mckesson's bid could be revived); Pearson PSON.UK -6% (cautious outlook), Asos ASC.UK -4% (broker commentary), Admiral Group ADM.UK -3% (concerns related to auto insurance rates), Inditex ITX.ES -1.5% (broker commentary), Easyjet EZJ.UK -1% (sees H1 loss on seasonal factors)]

- Financials [Sabadell SAB.ES +5% (FY results above ests)]

- Technology [Logitech LOGI.CH +10% (quarterly results above ests)]

- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Telecom flat; Technology -1.5%, Industrials -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Financials -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.1%]

Speakers:

- BOE's Fisher commented that growth headwinds had diminished but reiterated it was still some way off before rate hikes were needed and no immediate need to tighten when unemployment fall to 7% threshold. He added that it must allow economy to grow strongly for some time. To look at further guidance in context of Feb quarterly inflation report.

- Switzerland govt raised its countercyclical capital buffer and would now require banks to increase capital they must hold against mortgage activity to 2% from 1% currently by June 30th to help prevent overheating in the real estate sector

- Bank of Spain (BOS) Monthly Bulletin: Q4 GDP at +0.3% q/q and 0.0% y/y

- EU's Rehn: It will take 10 year to fix the problems in Spain

- Cyprus Finance Ministry: 2013 GDP at -5.5% vs. -7.7% forecast.

- OECD's Gurria commented that deflation was not an imminent danger in Europe. Unemployment should be the region's biggest concern for policy makers. He added that he trusted that the ECB 'do whatever it takes' attitude was a credible commitment and that Europe was not seen moving into a Japanese situation

- Thailand Constitutional Court to consider Election Commission request on delay in scheduled Feb 2nd election

Currencies/Fixed Income:

- Risk appetite was initially sidetracked after China flash HSBC-Markit PMI Manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months. However, better PMI readings from the major European member States helped to offset concerns over global growth.

- The EUR/USD found the momentum to finally bust above the 1.3580 area for 1-week highs

- The CHF was firmer after the Swiss Govt raised its countercyclical capital buffer to help prevent overheating in the real estate sector

- USD continued to rally with commodity and emerging market currencies.

- Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) said to have intervene in FX markets selling USD for first direct intervention since Jan 2012. The Lira has consistently hit fresh record low against both USD and EUR in recent weeks due to political crisis in the country. The Lira weakness accelerated this week after the central bank left its key interest rates unchanged (defying market calls for a rate hike to defend the lira)

Political/In the Papers:

- (EU) ECB's Draghi reiterated that domestic demand would gradually boost growth in the EMU> he also reiterated view of no deflation concerns as inflation expectations remained well anchored - Swiss press

-(UK) BOE's McCafferty: There is not a pressing need to raise interest rates, would raise rates when time is right and the MPC will provide more guidance when unemployment rate reaches 7%; Strength in the GBP was not yet hurting the UK

- (JP) IMF Shinohara: BOJ should not ease more if progress made towards inflation target - financial press

Looking Ahead

All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)

- World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos

- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel, Cabinet of CDU, SPD Ministers holds First Conclave

- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) COPOM Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell £2.25B in 2.25% 2023 Gilts

- 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €1.2- 1.7B in I/L 2016, 2018 and 2024 Oats

- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jan 17th: No est v $499.1B prior

- 06:00 (UK) Jan CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 25e v 34 prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.9% prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est 5.6% prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 5.8%e v 5.9% prior

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON1.0B in Bills

- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell €200M in 3.4% 2019 Bonds

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 326K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.93Me v 3.030M prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.9e v 0.6 prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export data

- 08:58 (US) Jan Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 55.0e v 54.4 prior

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Business Confidence: -5.7e v -6.4 -prior

- 09:00 (US) Nov House Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior

- 10:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Belgium

- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Jan Advance Consumer Confidence: -13.0e v -13.6 prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Existing Home Sales: 4.92Me v 4.90M prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Leading Index: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

- 11:00 (US)Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories

- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year refunding announcement

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes

- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2016 and 2018 Bills

- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds

- 11:00 (US) Jan Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v -3 prior

- 13:00 (IT) ECB's Visco (Italy) in Davos

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 10-Year TIPS

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Trade Balance: $900Me v $901M prior

- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report