European Major PMI data comes in mixed and remains in contraction territory

Economic Data

- (DK) Denmark Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.8% prior

- (DK) Denmark Nov Consumer Confidence Indicator: -1.3 v-5.0e

- (FR) France Nov Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 44.7 v 44.0e (9th straight month of contraction); PMI Services: 46.1 v 45.0e -03:10 (EU) Daily ECB liquidity stats

- (EU) ECB: €1.9B borrowed in overnight loan facility €1.8B prior; €226.3B parked in deposit facility vs. €229.7B prior

- (DE) Germany Nov Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.8v 46.0e (7th straight month of contraction); PMI Services: 48.0 v 48.3e (sharpest MoM decline in over 3 years)

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Consumer Spending Y/Y: 0.0% v -2.0% prior

- (HK) Hong Kong Oct CPI Composite Index Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.2v 45.6e; PMI Services: 45.7 v 46.0e; PMI Composite: 45.8 v 45.7e

- (IT) Italy Oct Non-EU Trade Balance: +€1.5B v -€657M prior

Fixed Income:

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.88V vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in in 2015, 2017 and 2021 Bonds

- Sold €1.712B in 3.75% 2015 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.617% v 3.660% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 2.83x prior; Maximum Yield 3.663% v 3.678% prior; Tail bps bps v 1.8bps prior

- Sold €645M in 5.50% July 2017 Bono bonds; Avg Yield 4.477% v 4.766% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.61x v 2.47x prior; Max Yield 4.519% v 4.828% prior, tail bps bps v 6.2bps prior

- Sold €1.523B in 5.5% 2021 Bonos; Avg Yield 5.517% v 5.545% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77x v 2.16x prior; Max Yield 5.555% v 5.564% prior

- (ES) Spain sold €3.2B in 4.75% 2017 bond via private placement; Yield 4.792% (**Note: Spain's Social Security Reserve Fund is buyer)

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK750M vs.EK750M indicated in I/L 0.25% 2022 Bonds; Yield 0.0513%

- (UK) DMO syndicated re-opening of I/L 2044 Gilt with order book over £6.0B

- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF70B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield 5.93% v 5.97% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.56x v 2.65x prior



- China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rises to above-50 expansion level for the first time in 13 months

- Japan Nikkei225 Index close at 6-month high (aided by weak JPY currency)

- Greece 10-year Govt bond below 16.00% for post PSI debt-restructuring low

- German Nov PMI Manufacturing misses consensus expectations and registers 7th straight month of contraction

- France Nov PMI Manufacturing beats expectations but registers 9th straight month of contraction

- Euro Zone PMIs point to 0.5% economic decline in Q4

- South Africa All-share index hits fresh record high above 37,781

- BoE Weale: Q4 GDP seen contracting

- Spain Debt Agency sold more than indicated in 3-part bond offering and sells bonds via private placement to Spain's pension fund

- Israel and Hamas cease-fire holding up

- US markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday with European volume extremely light as a result


-Indices: FTSE 100 +0.5% at 5,783, DAX +0.8% at 7,241, CAC-40 +0.4% at 3,491, IBEX-35 +1.0% 7,881 at, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 15,496, SMI +0.4% at 6,671 , S&P 500 Futures +0.% at 1,393

- European Equity markets opened the session slightly positive and headed higher on better than expected Manufacturing PMI's out of France and Germany. Trading was otherwise muted ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

- Individual movers included SAB Miller (SAB.UK) up 6% on better than expected net profits and revenues. Mothercare (MTC.UK) was up 4% after reporting earnings with increased International sales. Daily Mail (DMGT.UK ) was up 10% after reporting earnings and increasing their share buyback program. Fiat's (F.IT) stock was up slightly after it agreed to buy out the remain shares of CNH Global it didn't already own.


- EU's Juncker commented that he was not sure budget deal can be reached at today's EU Leader meeting

- EU's Van Rompuy commented that he was working hard for EU budget deal (**Note: to present new 2014 thru 2020 budget plan today)

- UK PM Cameron commented ahead of EU Leader Summit on budget that it was quite wrong that EU to propose more spending and was important to keep UK rebate

- German Govt official stated that it would like an agreement on EU budget this week but not dramatic should it come later. Greece could be a topic on the sidelines of today's Leader Summit (**Reminder: Chancellor Merkel stated that agreeing on EU budget might drag out till 2013)

- (UK) BOE Gov King with members Tucker & Haldane testified at Parliamentary hearing on banking standards.

- BOE Gov King noted that bank ring fencing depended on how it is defined. For bank regulator to be effective it has to use its judgment, but that should not lead to a negotiation between regulators and firms

- BoE Haldane noted that it shouldn't be held hostage from doing the right thing by fear that banks would stop lending

- BoE Tucker stated that he did not agree with King's preference to separate retail and investment banking. Full separation would still leave economy at risk of being blown up by non-retail banks

- BoE Weale commented that inflation would likely to remain above target and he saw a significant risk of GDP contraction in Q4. He was comfortable with current policy stance but would add to QE if it was non-inflationary. Weaker GBP currency (Sterling) would help rebalancing. New scheme aimed at boosting bank lending should help spur growth in 2013

- SNB's Jordan stated that CHF currency cap was not in place to fine-tune the economy and rReiterated that CHF currency cap is absolutely necessary and prevented threat of economic downturn

- Czech Debt Agency chief Pavelek commented that 2013 Gross funding needs were seen around CZK228B and that it sold CZK66B more in debt than needed in 2012 period

- Poland Central Bank Bratkowski stated that he sought the Polish Base Rate to be cut to 3.00% (implies another 150bps in cuts) as he saw rising risk of recession growing

- Sweden Central Bank publishes autumn risk survey: Markets seen functioning relatively well with main risks related to sovereign debt concerns. The survey saw no change in risk outlook over the next six months. Likelihood that household would be unable to repay loans seen as small. Basel III could make trade more expensive

- India FY13 fiscal deficit to GDP ratio could reach 5.5-5.6% (**Compares to 5.3% target) and could require an additional INR350-400B in borrowing. It now expected INR200B shortfall in spectrum auction revenues in FY13


- FX market is betting on a Greek solution with the Greek 10-year yield falling below the 16% level for its best post debt restructuring reading. The EUR/USD traded above the 1.2860 level in the session. The peripherals yield were again lower. The Spanish curve hit 2-week lows from 2-year to 10-year maturities.

- The JPY currency continued to weaken as repositioning ahead of the December Japanese election remained the primary catalyst in its price action. The USD/JPY pair tested above the 82.70 level with chatter that a key option at the 85 handle might become 'magnetic' in coming weeks.

Looking Ahead

***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (EU) The European Council holds a special meeting in Brussels

- (ES) EU's Barnier on official visit to Spain

- (AR) Argentina Nov Consumer Confidence: No est v 43.4 prior

- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Nov 16th: No est v $522.7B prior

- (PT) Portugal Sept Current Account: No est v €246.1M prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.3%e v 5.4% prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior

- 06:00 (UK) Nov CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -20e v -23 prior; Selling Prices: +7e v +7 prior

- 06:30 (IE) Ireland PM Kenny in Brussels

- 06:30 (EU) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Current Account: -$4.7Be v -$2.6B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $6.0Be v $4.4B prior

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble, Steinbrueck speak at HDE Retailers Event: Berlin

- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell up To RON250M in 2017 Bonds

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2013, 2015 and 2016 Bills

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior

- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.00%

- 09:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper Stats

- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Nov Advanced Consumer Confidence: -25.9e v -25.7 prior

- 11:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank member Wickman-Parak on economy

- 11:30 (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 10.9% prior

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: $585Me v $911M prior

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