Economic Data

- (JP) Japan Oct final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.7% prelim

- (HU) Hungary Central Bank Q3 Debt Level data: Public debt at 77.1% of GDP

- (EU) ECB: €1.82B borrowed in overnight loan facility €1.9B prior; €215.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €214.1B prior

- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.3%e

- (IS) Israel Nov Inflation Forecast: 1.9% v 2.0% prior

- (IS) Israel Oct Money Supply Y/Y: 8.6 v 11.8% prior

- (ES) Bank of Spain Sept Bad Loan Ratio: 10.7% (record) v 10.5% m/m; Total Bad Loans at €182.2B vs. €178.6B m/m

- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Orders M/M: -4.0% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -12.8% v -7.3%e

- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Sales M/M: -4.2% v -2.1%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -2.6% prior

- (GR) Greece Sept Current Account: €0.8B v €1.6B prior

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Construction Output M/M: -1.4% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.6 v -1.4% prior

Fixed Income:

- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold approx €2.41B vs. €2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills

- Sold €1.32B vs.€2B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.029% v -0.030% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.94x v 3.23x prior

- Sold €1.09B vs. €2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.020% v -0.012% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.93x v 2.87x prior

- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 5% 2015 Bonds; Yield 1.48% v 1.43% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.93x


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

***Notes/Observations***

- China's exports and imports said to have declined significantly in Nov, following rebound in prior 2 months

- ECB's Asmussen: Greece will require aid beyond 2014, may not return to markets until 2015, 2016

- LDP party leader Abe noted he would seek to appoint someone who agrees with his more aggressive inflation target as the next BOJ governor and signaled the BOJ may buy construction bonds

- (UK) BoE Miles: more QE still an option

- Spain Sept Bad Loan Ratio hits fresh record high of 10.7%

-Firmer stocks on fiscal cliff optimism

-Expectations Greece will get its money


Equities

- Indices: FTSE 100 +1% at 5,658, DAX +1.3% at 7,038, CAC-40 +1.3% at 3,384, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 7,624, FTSE MIB +1% at 15,005, SMI +0.80% at 6,558, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,366

- European equity indices are broadly higher. Some have cited more positively related to the US deficit talks for today's gains. Additionally, China's Shanghai Composited closed higher, after testing the psychologically important 2,000 level. Resource related firms are broadly higher, tracking the gains in oil and copper prices. Banks are trading higher, led by gains in Barclays and Commerzbank. In terms of individual movers, Dutch geological data firm Fugro has declined by over 15%, as the company disclosed a profit warning and announced the resignation of its CEO. In Germany, Hochtief [HOT.DE] has gained over 4%, amid speculation that the firm's CEO could resign. Shares of BP [BP.UK] are higher by over 2%, following reports that the firm could announce a share buyback plan in a move to deter hostile bidders. Retailer Ocado [OCDO.UK] is higher by over 20%, after the firm reported its 6-week sales figures and announced a refinancing agreement.

- FTSE 100 movers (ENRC +3.4%, Barclays +3%, Evraz +2.8%, Kazakhmys +2.6%, ARM Holdings +2.6%, BP +2.5%; Intertek -2.5%, Serco Group -1.7%)

- CAC-40 movers (STMicroelectronics +3%, Credit Agricole +3%, Renault +2.3%, Alcatel-Lucent +2.3%, SocGen +2.1%)

- DAX movers (Continental +3.1%, Commerzbank +3.1%, Infineon +2.6%, Luftansa +2.6%, Heidelberg Cement +2.2%)

- IBEX-35 movers (Fomento +2.2%, Gamesa +1.8%, Acerinox +1.5%, Red Electrica +1.4%, Obrascon +1.2%; Banco Popular -3.9%)

- FTSE MIB movers) (Fiat +2.6%, Luxottica +2.3%, Mediaset +2.1%, Tenaris +2%, Pirelli +1.9%; Atlantia -3.2%, Terna Rete Electrica -1.5%)

- SMI movers (Credit Suisse +2.1%, Richemont +2.1%, Transocean +2%, UBS +1.9%, Swatch +1.8%)

Speakers:

- ECB member Weidmann (Germany) EU banking union should relieve burden on monetary policy. There was a conflict between supervision and monetary policy and stressed that it must be strictly separate (seen as difficult but doable). Banks should back government debt holdings with capital and that pooling bank legacy assets could delay reforms. EU joint deposit guarantee rightly moved to background.

- ECB's Coeure (France) saw a return of confidence to Euro Area. He noted that the OMT bond buying would leave ample room for market forces. Crucial that banks were covered by single authority. EU creditability can be improved with more budget enforcement.

- ESM's Regling commented in the press that official Public sector haircut on Greek debt was unlikely. A public debt cut was something entirely extraordinary that could only exist in extremely exceptional situations. He believed Greece would be able to sink its debt ratio by one-third over the next decade without a public sector debt restructuring because of favorable refinance terms (only an interest rate of one-and-a-half to two percent)

- SNB Dep Board member Moser commented on CHF currency and reiterated that the Franc remained over-valued at 1.2000; global economic outlook has worsened. He saw slower economic growth but not a recession

- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer: Further loosening of monetary policy not necessarily imminent. On Czech CZK currency (crown): he noted that the markets were reading central bank well

- Italy PM Monti: Confident that next govt will continue reform path, but no guarantees

- EU Top Court to rule on ESM challenge on Tuesday, Nov 27th

- Austria Fin Min Fekter stated that Greece could not expect additional funding

- EU to propose in Dec a common and tougher definition of a tax haven according to a- draft document. European Commission would then seek to scrap or suspend double taxation agreements with these countries

- BoE Survey showed that UK financial companies saw lower risk of a "high risk impact event" and a diminished funding threat. The survey showed that sovereign risks were the main threat

- Italy Strategic Investment Fund in jv with Qatar Holdings with €2.0B to be invested in Italian companies

- Japan vice Fin Min Takemasa reiterated the view that Govt expected bold monetary easing from BOJ. He added it was inappropriate for BOJ to underwrite govt debt and needed cautious approach for BOJ purchases of foreign bonds. Gov should not request BOJ to purchase foreign bonds

- India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan commented that RBI needed to continue to watch inflation trajectory for the time being before deciding on lowering interest rates. He expected INR currency (Rupee) to trade around current levels by end of FY13 (March 2013)

- Iran envoy to Moscow stated that the country was ready to resume nuclear discussions but had no offer yet from UN Counsel (P5+1) on either date or timing of talks . Iran sought a more constructive approach from P5+1

Currencies:

- Sentiment that negotiations on a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff were productive late last week helped to sooth risk appetite which weighed upon the USD and JPY currencies. EUR/USD moved over 1.2780 as a result after a better risk backdrop. The pair has resistance at 1.2806 (corresponds to last week's high and the 200-day moving average)

- The USD/JPY moved off its 7-month high made during the Asian session. Election-hopeful PM Abe stated over the weekend that he might seek to have BoJ underwrite Japanese infrastructure bonds but current govt officials played down such speculation.

Political/ In the Papers:

- (BE) According to a study by Unizo and Graydon, for the first time in 3-years the number of start ups in Belgium has fallen - De Tijd

-(BE) Belgium cost of labor is 5.2% higher than its neighboring countries; Working group has been established to find ways to make the country more competitiveness - De Tijd

- (EU) Moodys: Euro Zone crisis is in a period of calm, but the EMU sovereign situation remains fragile; Missing fiscal targets could lead to increased volatility in bonds

-(GR) EU President Juncker: Progress is being made to find an agreement between IMF and Europe over differences on Greece; Expects a deal will be reached soon and next tranche of aid will be paid - financial press

-(GR) Netherlands Fin Min Dijsselboem: Cannot say whether a solution for Greece will be found at Nov 20th Eurogroup meeting

- (GR) ECB's Asmussen: Greece will require aid beyond 2014, may not return to markets until 2015, 2016 - German press; Fin Mins, ECB and IMF to meet on Tuesday to plug new budget shortfall of approx €30B under the current bailout program

- (GR) IMF's Lagarde: Greek solution should be convincing and sustainable - financial press

-(GR) Financial press report citing an EU diplomat suggesting the extraordinary summit called for this week may fail

-(GR) Bundesbank Chief Weidmann: Greece should be allowed a haircut only as a reward for successfully implementing reform and austerity - financial press

- (IE) Franklin Templeton raised its holdings of Ireland's sovereign bonds in Q3 to at least €8.4B vs. €6.1B as of the end of June - FT

-Allied Irish Banks: There is speculation that Allied Irish Banks could issue bonds - Irish Press

-(ES) Spain said to be facing heavy bond redemptions in Jan and April of 2013 - US financial press

- (ES) Spain's Valencia region said to be seeking an additional €800M in aid on top of the €1.1B already received - financial press


Looking Ahead

***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent) 19-20 NOV (EU) ECB Workshop on Excess Liquidity in Germany

- (UK) Commons reconvenes after autumn recess

- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers Meet in Brussels

- (FI) Russia Fin Min Sikuanov to meet Finland Fin Min Urpilainen

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct Producer Prices M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.6% prior

- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2016, 2018, 2023 and 2042 bonds

- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2.75% I/L 2022 Bonds

- 06:30 (EU) Daily Libor Fixing

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.2%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.4%e v 5.5% prior

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Q3 Current Account: -$4.1Be v -$2.4B prior

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Employment M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.7%e v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.6% prior

- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell up to RON500M in 2017 Bonds

- 08:30 (EU) ECB member Praet

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell between 05.8-€7.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills)

- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly settlements in Govt bond purchases

- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day Refinancing tender

- 10:00 (US) Nov NAHB Housing Market Index: 41e v 41 prior

- 10:00 (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 4.75Me v 4.75M prior

- 11:00 (UK) UK Vince Cable Speaks at EU Conference in Brussels

- 11:00 (US) Fed to sell $7.00-8.00B in Notes

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Month 6-Month Bills

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Unemployment: 7.2%e

- (JP) BOJ Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Target Rate Range unchanged between 0.0-0.1%