EUR/USD Forecast: correction over, back to 1.0460?


The EUR/USD pair has resumed its decline this Friday, all the way down to 1.1000, and is positioned to close the week at a fresh 3-week low, a handful of pips above the critical level. Having started the week near 1.1466, levels not seen since early February, the EUR sell-off started earlier this week, as ECB officers made it clear that they don't want an expensive currency, but it was not until the release of US CPI figures that bulls finally gave up this Friday. In the middle, the Greek drama continues with loads of meetings and no answers. 

The technical picture suggest the upward corrective movement is complete, as the weekly chart shows that the price is back below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned sharply lower around their mid-lines, resuming their declines after correcting the extreme oversold conditions seen earlier this year. Daily basis, the price is a few pips below its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head south below their mid-lines, also supporting a bearish continuation for the upcoming days. Should the price finally breach the 1.1000 figure, 1.0840 comes as the next possible bearish target, as the pair presents several daily highs and lows in the region. If this last level is also broken, the bearish run can extend down to 1.0650, the next strong static support level.

To the upside, the first strong resistance comes at 1.1120, but 1.1280 holds the key for additional advances as some steady gains above the level can result attractive for bulls, with the next strong resistance and probable bullish target at 1.1390/1.1440. 

View live chart of the EUR/USD


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