EUR/USD Forecast: 1.1000 it was, 1.0760 next

A couple of weeks ago I was wondering whether 1.1000 or 1.1600 would came first. The idea of a test of 1.1600 was based on the possibility of a Greek deal -I bet you don't even thought once about Greece this week- and the following relief rally. Anyway, that chapter was closed with the rally capped at 1.1440, and the pair held in the limbo above 1.1250 February buying line. But then it came March, with renewed selling interest and the usual suspects in the fundamental front, being the ECB and the US NFP. And here we are we the EUR/USD trading at 1.0860, the lowest level in over 11 years. 

Technically, the pair has not been this oversold daily basis, since late January this year, when it fell briefly below 1.1200 before recovering above 1.1500. That means the pair has still room to go further lower, despite trading 300 points lower. The Momentum indicator in the same time frame heads strongly south deep into the red whilst as commented on previous weekly updates, moving averages are too far away to become relevant at this point.  The weekly chart presents a quite similar picture, with the RSI resuming the downside after failing to overcome the 30 level, while the Momentum indicator also presents a sharp bearish slope. Overall additional declines should be expected, and spikes will be now seen as opportunities to sell. 

The next critical support, is the 1.0760 price zone, where the pair has a couple of monthly lows, back from 2003. Should the decline extend below it, the 1.0600 level comes next. To the upside, the critical resistance comes now at 1.1000, with sellers probably surging up to the 1.1060 price zone. A recovery above this last, quite unlikely at this point but not impossible, may see the pair correcting as high as 1.1250, without actually harming the bearish dominant trend. 

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