EUR/USD Forecast: Draghi weighting


Thursday is the turn of Europe to flood the calendar with data, with mixed numbers across the different economies: inflation in Spain shrunk down to -0.5%, lending to euro zone households and companies contracted further in October, but German unemployment improved, while EZ economic sentiment ticked higher, up to 100.8 from 100.7. The EUR/USD pair lost over 50 pips however, on the back of Draghi’s words before the Finnish parliament, anticipating the ECB is in wait and see mode, meaning there are almost no chances the Central Bank will announce some form of QE next week.

With German inflation still to be released, the EUR/USD pair retreated from a daily high of 1.2523, and the 4 hours chart shows price near its 20 SMA that heads higher a couple pips below current price, while indicators turned lower, still holding above their midlines. Yesterday’s low at 1.2443 stands as the immediate support, with a break below putting the pair under short term pressure, eyeing a test of the 1.2390/1.2400 price zone.

The 1.2520 area continues to be the key resistance, as it will take some steady recovery above it to see the pair rallying up to 1.2560 price zone.

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