EURUSD – Expecting One More Final Decline

As expected the euro continued moving towards the downside, touched our first target at 1.2864, then immediately rebounded towards the upside in what was the euro’s strongest upwards movement in several months.

We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

6-Hour Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3111
– Confirmation Point: 1.2910
– 1.2885 – Downwards Target : 1.2869
– 1.2801 – Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Main 6-Hour Wave Count

The bigger picture sees the euro moving downwards in intermediate wave (A), which is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 3 is unfolding as an impulse labeled minute wave i though v.

Within it, minute wave iii formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching 261.8% the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iv formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing just over 23.6% of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v is unfolding as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (ii) retraced a little over 78.6% of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) unfolded as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching 261.8% the length of minuette wave i.

Minuette wave (iv) retraced 23.6% of minuette wave (iii).

Minuette wave (v) is now unfolding as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, both subminuette waves i and iii formed impulses labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave iv formed a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, retracing 38.2% of subminuette wave iii.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (v). This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2910, with further confirmation below 1.2885.

Neither the MACD indicator nor candlestick analysis is offering a clear signal at this point.

At 1.2869 subminuette wave v would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.2801 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3111 as subminuette wave iv within this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i. And as price moves below our confirmation point, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of subminuette wave iv, which currently stands at 1.2980.