What To Expect From Non-Farm Payrolls? - Views From 15 Major Banks

The following are the expectations for today's US August jobs report as provided by the economists at 15 major banks along with some strategies to trade the USD into the event as provided by the FX strategists at these banks.

Goldman: We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain. Worth noting that in recent years, the preliminary August payrolls figure has tended to be relatively soft in the initial release and has subsequently been revised upwards in following employment reports, with back revisions averaging +79k over the past five years. Likewise, the consensus has a modest tendency to overestimate job growth in August, more so than in other months. For example, consensus forecasts have over­predicted August job growth since 2010 by an average of 30k. We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 5.2%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings for all employees are likely to increase 0.3% month­over­month in August

RBS: RBS trading desk economists expect non-farm payroll growth of 220K in August, a result that more-or-less matches the prevailing trend, as the three month moving average of NFP growth currently sits at 235K...Scenarios and Trades: Here are some of the scenarios and trades for August NFP as outlines by RBS. - 250k to 300k: Long USD/CHF. - 200k to 250k (Base-Case): Short EUR/USD. - 150k to 200k: Short USD/CAD. - 150k or below: Short USD/JPY.

Nomura: We expect the August employment report to show another trend-like +200k gain in payrolls and another decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. We forecast that private payrolls increased by 210k in August, as we expect a 10k increase in government payrolls. We assess the risks to our payrolls forecasts as balanced.

Barclays: We expect headline NFPs to increase to 225k, above consensus (218k), with the unemployment rate falling to 5.2% (5.2% consensus) and wages growing 2.0% y/y. Positive readings from the employment report should reaffirm the strength of the US labor market.

BofA Merrill: Payrolls likely grew by a healthy 200,000 in August, not far from the 6-month moving average of 210,000. A pick-up in hiring in the household survey could also nudge the jobless rate down to 5.2% from 5.3% — a sign that labor market slack continues to diminish. Average hourly earnings should rise by a steady 0.2% mom, but softer baseyear effects will take the yoy rate down a tenth of a percent to 2.0%.
The unemployment rate should creep lower to 5.2% from July’s 5.3% print (unrounded 5.26%), if hiring in the household survey picks up as we expect. A falling jobless rate would be a signal that the labor market continues to heal and slack continues to diminish. But the signal from wages may be a bit softer: although we expect hourly earnings to post a healthy 0.2% mom increase, the yoy would tick slightly lower due to base-year effects in the annual calculation.

Credit Suisse: We forecast Friday’s payrolls at 180k (consensus 218k), down from the prior 215k.
Note that over the past four years, August payrolls have surprised to the downside before being revised up by an average 90k in later readings. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2% from 5.3% (consensus 5.3%) and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3%, leaving year-over-year growth at 2.1%.

Credit Agricole: CA is expecting a payroll gain of 220K (consensus 218K), stable unemployment rate of 5.3% (consensus 5.2%) and average weekly earnings annual growth of 2.0% (consensus 2.1% YoY). CA economists further think that despite robust payroll gains, the Fed could still decide to delay lift-off to October mainly because of the recent market turmoil and lingering concerns about China and global growth. In addition, Draghi may have made Yellen's job more difficult given that the ECB dovishness could reinvigorate global currency wars and increase the risk of accentuated USD-gains in response to Fed tightening. The markets will nevertheless view the NFP release as an important driver of the timing of Fed lift-off. A NFP print in line of stronger than consensus accompanied by solid weekly earnings' gains will suggest that lift-off cannot be postponed for too long. Given that the investors have pared back significantly their rate hike expectations for September and October, a stronger NFP print will also have a more pronounced market impact in our view. We expect the USD to do well under this outcome with EUR and risk-correlated among the biggest losers. A weak print, eg a NFP print below 190K and a soft weekly earnings' gain (essentially a sub 2% YoY growth), could lead the markets to pare back lift-off bets. We suspect that while negative for USD, the overall impact may be less pronounced and could see investors selling USD against JPY, EUR and CHF yet again. Any relief rally in risk-correlated currencies should prove short-lived.

Deutsche Bank: The August employment report will be released on Friday, and Deutsche Bank expects a 170k nonfarm payroll gain, which is significantly below the year-to-date average (211k) and consensus expectations of roughly 220k. To be clear, we do not believe that underlying momentum in the labor market has meaningfully deteriorated. As we have previously noted, August employment has historically tended to disappoint consensus expectations. The last four August payroll reports were all weaker than expected; they were on average 55k below consensus.

Morgan Stanley: MS is expecting a payroll gain of 205k, and unemployment rate of 5.3%...Will the Fed pull the trigger and hike rates early should today’s NFP report come in strong, or should the Fed listen to the IMF and EM representatives and delay hiking rates for as long as possible? Today’s August NFP report has the potential to move markets. For good economic news to translate into good market news, it might require the Fed to send the signal that it may refrain from increasing rates. Why? Higher US rates increase credit cost of the USD9.2trn of USD-denominated claims found outside the US and increase the relative attractiveness of USD-denominated holdings, triggering more EM outflows.

BTMU: The probability of a Fed rate increase is still a touch over 30% and we believe a very strong report would be required to convince the market a rate increase this month is likely. Perhaps something well north of 250k with all the other pieces of data also positive is what it might take to bring the market to position for a rate increase. Even then though market participants will not be fully convinced given China markets reopen next week and how the markets behave through to 16th/17th will also determine the FOMC decision. That said, our BTMU NFP model is giving us an estimate of 258k. Our model has on average over-estimated by 19k this year but under-estimated by 16k throughout 2014. If there is another under-estimate today and/or a weaker than consensus reading, the markets are likely to take account of this historic bias and assume an upward revision next month will follow.

BNPP: Our economists forecast a 230k rise in payrolls, only moderately above the 218k consensus, while the unemployment rate will likely hold at 5.3% while average earnings manage a trend-like 0.2% increase. While this would represent a solid reading, it would not be strong enough to convince markets that the Fed would proceed with a September rate hike in the face of ongoing financial market volatility. We remain patiently bullish on the USD.

CIBC: CIBC is expecting a payroll gain of 172k, and unemployment rate of 5.2%...for a while now, the release of August’s figures has caused a great deal of angst. Why? Because it’s pretty consistently been the weakest month of the year at the time of first release, only for that soft initial estimate to be revised up sharply in subsequent releases. As such using any weakness in August’s payrolls as an opportunity to buy US$ dips may be a good strategy—doubly so this year with the Fed close to a turning point.

SEB: Two components must fall in place in order for Fed to hike on the 17th of Sep: 1. A final good jobs report further confirming ‘’some’’ labor market improvement. The Fed itself has decided to concentrate on only today’s statistics which, according to our forecast, is expected to show about 240.000 new jobs in August and an unemployment rate of 5.2% (5.3% in July). A such strong jobs report would clearly boost the Fed’s confidence. 2. The Fed wants to feel secure in its belief that inflation is heading towards 2%. The ‘’Fischer speech’’ on Saturday confirmed this and Wednesday’s Beige Book also indicated growing wage pressure. Obviously, the Fed is not unable to see the emerging uncertainty in China. We believe Fed continues to work according to our main scenario.

Danske: Focus will be on the US labour market report for August where we look for stillsolid employment growth of 205,000. The Conference Board’s measure of the labour market (jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get) increased to a new cycle high in August, which is an encouraging sign. However, taking a broader set of labour market indicators into account, we estimate that job growth slowed to 205,000 in August, from a growth rate of 235,000 on average over the past three months. We estimate that the unemployment rate declined one notch to 5.2% – not far from the FOMC’s NAIRU estimate of 5.0%.

Westpac: In August, we expect to see further robust growth in employment, with a nonfarm payrolls gain circa 230k likely. Initial claims data continues to point to a low pace of firing; and the business surveys are supportive of continued robust hiring. Participation may tick higher, but the unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged.

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