The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Most factors points lower. Initially the pair continued the decline after the bearish key day reversal on Thursday but later on rebounded and ending the day unchanged (doji candle). The behavior has taken some bearishness out of the preceding day’s price action but so far only to a lesser degree. The possible bearish triangle case is also calling for the market to scrutinize support in the 1.06’s as the next step going forward.
EUR/GBP: New attempt to re-enter the channel. Last week became the second consecutive winner after having spiked to the downside early March. The rejection and following rally clearly raises the question whether the past seven years decline now have come to an end. The Thu/Fri rejection from the former channel floor has appeared in three waves and is hence labelled corrective. As a result a new attempt to re-enter the channel will probably be seen within shortly. The view also fits with our call for cable to explore the downside and with an increasingly bearish view on the BOE £ index.
USD/JPY: So far respecting the key support. The market did little on Friday to scatter the clouds over whether we’ve completed a bullish three wave downside correction at 118.33 or not. As earlier elaborated a break of the 118.33/118.11-area will swing the pendulum in favor of a potential larger double top formation being created. Remaining on top of the key support zone will call for the 122.04 – 118.33 drop to have been part and parcel of a bull market correction (and for new highs to be traced out.
AUD/USD: Targeting the mid-0.76s next. The pair remains on a near-term losing streak and the 0.7650-area is targeted next. Mid-body resistance at 0.7788 ought to attract sellers if they get the chance to sell into a bounce. Current intraday stretches are located at 0.7665 & 0.7820.
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