Given an expected further deterioration in Eurozone business sentiment, pressure upon EUR is unlikely to be alleviated in the week ahead.
Coming in the wake of the disappointing TLTRO take-up (EUR82.6bn versus consensus of around EUR125bn), such sentiment data can only support speculation surrounding a potentially more aggressive ECB policy move later this year.
In an otherwise quiet data-week, comments from ECB governing council members including Coeure, Praet, and finally Draghi (Thursday) will be watched closely. We do not expect them to deliver anything new, the TLTRO result will likely be discussed.
Thus, while we view the Fed as unchanged in its accommodative stance, such Eurozone-specific influence should see short-rate spreads widen pulling EUR/USD lower to test 1.28 this week.
As we highlighted last week, if the ECB is truly now more keenly focussed on improving Eurozone export competitiveness, the latest policy steps have been a success.
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
eFXnews is a financial news and information service. Articles and other information distributed in this service and published on this site are provided in general terms and do not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that some of these articles include suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, they do so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions to buy or sell a specific security or currency.
The service and the content of this site are provided and distributed on the basis of “AS IS” without warranties of any kind either, express or implied, including without limitations, warranties of title or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors do not also warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in any of the articles and other information distributed in this service and included on this site, and eFXnews hereby disclaims any such express or implied warranties; and, you hereby acknowledge that use of the service and the content of this site is at you sole risk.
In no event shall eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors will be liable to you or any third party or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you in your reliance on any strategy and/or advice included in any article and other information distributed in this service and published in this site.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD keeps the red below 0.6400 as Middle East war fears mount
AUD/USD is keeping heavy losses below 0.6400, as risk-aversion persists following the news that Israel retaliated with missile strikes on a site in Iran. Fears of the Israel-Iran strife translating into a wider regional conflict are weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie Dollar.
USD/JPY breaches 154.00 as sell-off intensifies on Israel-Iran escalation
USD/JPY is trading below 154.00 after falling hard on confirmation of reports of an Israeli missile strike on Iran, implying that an open conflict is underway and could only spread into a wider Middle East war. Safe-haven Japanese Yen jumped, helped by BoJ Governor Ueda's comments.
Gold price pares gains below $2,400, geopolitical risks lend support
Gold price is paring gains to trade back below $2,400 early Friday, Iran's downplaying of Israel's attack has paused the Gold price rally but the upside remains supported amid mounting fears over a potential wider Middle East regional conflict.
WTI surges to $85.00 amid Israel-Iran tensions
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gains traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran.
Dogwifhat price pumps 5% ahead of possible Coinbase effect
Dogwifhat price recorded an uptick on Thursday, going as far as to outperform its peers in the meme coins space. Second only to Bonk Inu, WIF token’s show of strength was not just influenced by Bitcoin price reclaiming above $63,000.