The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Still offered. With the Thu/Fri bounce occurring in a clear three wave corrective manner a new trend low was confirmed breaking 1.3160. So far the 1.3117 support has prevented the pair from falling further but unless recovering above 1.3159 there’s still room for slightly lower levels (1.3094) before a new correction attempt likely will take place. On a longer term horizon the deviation from 1.3209 more and more speaks in favor of the next target being a 161.8% Fibo projection point at 1.2905.
EUR/JPY: More losses confirmed underway. With last week’s close below 136.82 a new utterly bearish weekly candle (bearish engulfing/bearish key week reversal) was created. The signal clearly warns of more losses in the month to come. In the shorter time frame also an hourly three wave rise from Thursday’s low points at an immediate downside risk (below 136.58 = break of 136.42).
EUR/GBP: Bear flag exit. The break and close below the 55d ma band and the bear flag ceiling has more or less confirmed the resumption of the underlying bear trend. Also the break below 0.7915, the low point of the impulsive Aug 13 rise, strongly argues for new trend lows in the making. Upside reactions should now be limited to the mid body point of Friday’s candle, 0.7930.
USD/CAD: Buyers at support! Last week recorded net losses, that is true, but it is also very interesting to see how buyers responded to that move and did so at dynamic support. If/when resistance at 1.0910 is taken out, extension back to and above the Aug high of 1.0998 should be accounted for. Medium-term players would then open up for a test and break of a key ref at 1.1053. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0830 & 1.0910.
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