The following are the intraday outlooks for the USD Index, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: Starting to correct the stretch. The greenback has during the past week been “stretched” (outside both the 233d as well as the 55d Bollinger bands) to an extent that we haven’t seen for a long time. Yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle suggests that we now have taken the first step to correct this stretch and if continuing below the starting point (Fri close) of the weekend gap, 82.33, more losses should be penciled in near term.
EUR/USD: Will recheck the prior support zone. The decline has during the past days been running on fumes. With all targets for this down cycle (July – now) met, a severe stretch (outside the 233d Bollinger bands) and with an hourly bull divergence we see yesterday’s price action as the first step towards an upward correction. The correction will at least test the prior support zone, 1.3209-1.3295, now acting resistance but a move up to the triangle peak, 1.3433, should certainly not be ruled out at this stage.
NZD/USD: Rise is getting legs. Underpinned by the bullish divergence (and the rebound from former large 2013 triangle ceiling, now acting support) the market continued its climb yesterday. Short term we might run into some offers in the 0.8401/07-area (June & Aug lows) but we think the area soon will be passed which further will enhance the short covering scenario and keeping the 0.8536 as a viable target.
USD/CAD 1.0845 Big move lower has impact. Yesterday’s slump became even more pronounced than thought. A small rebound closer to but not above yesterday's mid-body point at 1.0910 is possible, before extending losses, possibly towards next ref on south at 1.0795. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0830 & 1.0910.
EUR/CHF: The swissy is about to turn tail. The super-swissy has come a long way against the euro in little time - almost 1% lower in a month and that’s a lot for the low volatile EUR/CHF market. A short-term stretch would kick in not far below, now at 1.2050, and if not before then a U-turn higher should materialize, ultimately aimed to re-test resistance around 1.2120. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2055 & 1.2090.
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