The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EUR/USD: With a “bearish engulfing” candlestick in place, the immediate risk leans to the downside.
EURUSD has seen a rejection from the “neckline” to the recent top at 1.3640/50, forming a “bearish engulfing” candlestick. We look for a test of 1.3589/88 initially, followed by last week’s low at 1.3575. Removal of the latter should then trigger a test of "neckline" support at 1.3513/03, a break of which would aim at more important levels at 1.3477, the early year low. Below this latter level remains needed to confirm the completion of the expected large bear "wedge".
Resistance shows at 1.3638 initially, then 1.3652/53, followed by 1.3665/77, above which is needed for a move back to 1.3701.
USD/JPY: We remain bearish for a challenge of key support at 100.85/75.
USDJPY has broken below the late June low at 101.23. Although subsequent fresh buying has emerged, we continue to look for a sustained break for a move to challenge more important support from the lower end of the medium-term range at 100.85/75. Beneath here would complete an important top for weakness towards psychological support at 100.00 initially, followed by price and 50% retracement of the Jun-13/Jan-14 rise at 99.64.
Above 101.57 is needed to look back to 101.84/97, with a break here needed for a fresh look at the 102.20/28 recent highs.
GBP/USD: Remains above its rising 13-day average, leaving the trend higher for 1.7330/32.
GBPUSD continues to hold above price, trendline and rising 13-day average support at 1.7104/1.7085. We look for this to ideally hold to see a move back up to test the 1.7181 recent high. Above here would turn the trend higher again for potential trend resistance at 1.7250 next, and eventually on to our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32 – the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 collapse. We would look for this to then cap at first, for a correction lower.
Immediate support shows at 1.7105/03. Failure to hold 1.7085 can see a minor top to target 1.7042 then 1.7008/1.6998, which we look to then ideally hold.
AUD/USD: Only below .9322 would see a near-term top.
With trendline, 55-day average and key “neckline” support at .9356/22 still holding, a slight upside bias can be maintained for now for .9457 initially. Extension through here is then needed to reassert an upward bias for a move back to .9506 high, then .9584 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2014 downtrend.
Below .9322 would complete a top, as well as a confirmed break of the uptrend, clearing the way for further weakness to .9258, then what we view as more important support at .9230/.9202.
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