Russia: Ill winds from the East
The Ukrainian crisis is already straining the euro zone. As growth stalls and inflation vanishes, the ECB rolls out its big guns.
Jean-Luc PROUTAT
One risk can hide another
Economic growth in emerging countries has moderated during the summer following a strong Q2. Financing conditions remain favourable both in terms of capital inflows, market access and cost of financing. We have slightly revised our growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 owing to stagnation in Brazil this year and a recession in Russia next. Political risk is more and more acute. A recent IMF study confirms that China has all the warning signs of a “insidious” credit crisis.
François FAURE
Eurozone: The ECB acts again
As growth disappoints and inflation as well as inflation expectations decline further, the ECB decided to cut key policy and buy private sector debt securities. Those measures favour a further depreciation of the euro. Should conditions deteriorate further, the ECB will not have other options than buying sovereign debt securities.
Clemente DE LUCIA
Germany: Summer’s gentle decline
After starting the year at a promising pace, the German economy suddenly put on the brakes last spring. The expected Q3 rebound is likely to be small given the impact of new European Union sanctions against Russia. Faced with this environment, we have revised downwards our growth outlook for Germany.
Caroline NEWHOUSE
France: A turbulent end to the summer
The French economy remained stalled in Q2, and weak growth looks set to continue. The lack of growth and very low inflation are undermining the government's budget deficit reduction targets (3.8% of GDP in 2014). Given this economic background, along with open criticism of the economic policy to be implemented, François Hollande and Manuel Valls decided to carry out another cabinet reshuffle. The appointment of Emmanuel Macron as the new minister of economy clarifies the liberal slant of the government’s economic policy, best illustrated by the responsibility pact. Although the government is more cohesive than before, it will have to deal with a more fractious parliamentary majority. Politically, the dissolution of the government, though quite unlikely, is now a possibility. In terms of the economy, the progress of reforms is at stake.
Hélène BAUDCHON
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 on Thursday and remains on track to end the day in negative territory following upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US. The action in financial markets turn subdued as trading volumes thin out heading into Easter holiday.
GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.