France, the INSEE is somewhat more optimistic


  • French growth is expected to accelerate slightly 
  • Consumption, will lead, business investment will be less depressed
The Insee’s economic outlook carries a note of cautious optimism. In the December 2014 issue of “Conjoncture in France”, the Insee calls for French growth to accelerate slightly in the first half of 2015. It is expected to reach an annualised growth rate of 1% under the combined impact of lower oil prices and a weaker euro. Private consumption will be the main channel as the decline in the energy bill paid by households (for petrol, heating fuel, etc.) boosts purchasing power. Corporate investment is also supposed to pick up. Although currency depreciation raises the cost of intermediate goods, the impact is more than offset by the drop-off in commodity prices. Moreover, for many export companies, the euro’s decline eases the pressure on sales prices and thus on margins. Historically very low in France, the latest will get a lift in early 2015 from the ramping up of the CICE tax credit and reductions in employer’s contribution. Investment should follow… provided that demand prospects improve.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday

GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance. 

GBP/USD News

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed

Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited. 

Gold News

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.

Read more

Key events in developed markets next week

Key events in developed markets next week

Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures