• ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks this afternoon

  • Weaker iron ore prices from China outlook hurt AUD

  • Kiwi dollar gets boost as incumbent PM John Key has comfortable win

  • Chinese manufacturing PMI for September this week

It is rather strange to sit here typing this briefing without having to fold in the run of opinion polls on Scottish independence. The decision of the majority of the Scottish people to hold off on independence provided a short term bump for the pound, but we, and I mean this with no disrespect to the 45% who voted Yes on Thursday, move past this issue now.

Friday morning we reminded you that sterling, before the fear of a plot in the union really hit the markets, was already on the back foot. We can estimate that of the 10 cents that sterling has lost in the past 10 weeks against the US dollar, around 3 was on issues pertaining to Scotland. The rest is due to the slowing of some growth metrics and a Bank of England that is continuing to lean on the poor wage outlook in the United Kingdom to support its desire to keep its rates as low as they are for a little while longer.

I have some sympathy for Messrs Weale and McCafferty in that the Bank of England must be seen as proactive in its combat of expansionary pressures to the price outlook. Reactive doesn't cut it at this level. At the moment, real wages remain an issue that no changes in the minimum wage will solve overnight.

That being said, the political ructions that the Independence campaign caused can still have an effect on sterling. We are still unclear as to the investment landscape a newly fiscally emboldened Holyrood will create and whether an increased demand for oversight of local fiscal issues in Wales and Northern Ireland will also damage spending and business confidence.

For now, I personally am glad to be back on an economic beat and not that of a lobby reporter.

Most of the overnight news has come from Down Under. Aussie dollar has spent the past few weeks on the back foot as iron ore prices have shifted lower on a weaker Chinese industrial outlook. This has continued overnight as the prices have tripped to 5 year lows. The key Chinese manufacturing PMI for September is released this week and a continuation of this slack will keep the AUD unloved. All of this is news to the Reserve Bank of Australia, however, who have been chirping about the currency coming lower to match the slips in commodity price fundamentals.

Kiwi dollar has moved in the opposite direction after comfortable and expected win for the incumbent Prime Minister John Key in the country's general election. Similarly, we can expect Kiwi dollar watchers to be keeping a close eye on that Chinese number. Terms of trade are a double edged sword.

Have a great day.

Disclaimer: The comments put forward by World First are only our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgment. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgment as of the date of the briefing and are subject to change without notice. Any rates given are “interbank” ie for amounts of £5million and thus are not indicative of rates offered by World First for smaller amounts.

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