EUR/USD 4H chart 8:00AM EDT 4/9/2013
1.30: Price action for EUR/USD during the 4/8 session was more or less sideways when it held under 1.3040. But it also found support around the 1.30 handle. Then, during the 3/9 session, it popped up to a new high for the month, above 1.3050. It came back down during the European session. As we get into the 3/9 US session it holds above 1.30, and is trying to climb back up above 1.3050. Ability to do so should continue the bullish outlook at least in the short-term.
Failure: Failure to push higher above the current high of 1.3067, and a break below 1.30 can be a sign that bears are taking over. A break below 1.2965 would further confirm topping and suggest a retest of a price bottom, which has resistance around 1.2880 that could be tested as support.
Looking at the 1H chart, if the RSI holds above 40, we still maintain bullish momentum. The moving averages are still in bullish alignment, so in this environment, buying on a dip could be a good idea, until a break below 1.2850 at which point, the bearish outlook could be revived.
More aggressive targets for the next couple of weeks:
50% retracement = 1.3227
61.8% retracement = 1.334