USD/JPY 1H chart 2/12/2013 9:40AM EST

USDJPY

G7 shake: G7 made a statement about how currency exchange should be market-driven, but really wanted to focus on the “excess movement” in the yen. Whatever the interpretation is of these G7 statements and the upcoming G20 meeting, the market reacted by holding off JPY-weakness. USD/JPY fell immediately from about 94.45 to 93.25.

Triangle: After breakout out of a triangle as well as 94.00, the market is now testing this broken triangle. So far, there was a counter-reaction at the triangle resistance. I believe that if the 1H RSI pushes below 40, then, the bullish breakout might have trouble extending, especially if price also falls below 93.00, which is the middle of the broken triangle. However, a bearish outlook should be limited to above 92.00. A break below 92.00 might be needed to convince the market there is a top in USD/JPY, and usher in some significant bearish correction that the USD/JPY has not had in its sharp bullish trend since Nov. 2012.