EUR/USD 1H Chart 12/20/2012 7:30AM EST


1.33 held; rising trendline: During the 12/19 session, the market held EUR/USD under 1.33 after briefly cracking this psychological level. The pair was dragged down to 1.3188 to start the 12/20 session. This was the resistance from a brief consolidation that formed earlier in the week. Here the market met a rising trendline (area) that goes back to the beginning of the previous week (12/10). The trendline barely held as we near the end of its 2nd week of holding price in a bull run.

Scenarios: As we pullback above 1.3250 to start the 12/20 US session, the market is at the cusp of bullish continuation. The bullish structure is still there, although we lost some steam to the upside. Still without enough evidence of a reversal, the primary outlook remains bullish, unless there is a failure to push above the 1.3307 high combined with a break back below 1.3188.

If the 12/20 US session can pull price back down below 1.32, holding the RSI reading below 60, we are likely continuing the focus on a bearish correction as well.