EUR/USD 4H Chart 12/11/2012 7:30AM EST
1.30: The resistance around 1.30 was only able to hold EUR/USD for a brief period before the market pushed it above 1.30, trading at 1.3040 early 12/12 US session. Last week’s bearish swing caused a loss in bullish momentum, but is unable to extend for further bearish momentum. As we await the FOMC statement at 12:00PM EST and subsequent Bernanke press conference at 2:15PM EST, the EUR/USD is sideways to bullish, with a strong bullish bias.
The 1.31-1.3125 area is the resistance for today, and a test of whether the market will stay bullish after the event risks from Bernanke and the Fed. A break above 1.3125 then exposes the 1.3170 September high. Above that, we continue a bullish trend started in July from 1.2042, with the 2012-high of 1.3487 in sight.
At this point, if the market fails to hold above 1.30 after the FOMC-Bernanke risk events, the bullish outlook is still on hold for further consolidation in the short-term.