USD/CAD 4H Chart 8:02AM EDT 11/27/2012
Channel: Following the previous update on USD/CAD, it failed to pus back above the 0.9953 pivot and falling channel seen in the 4H chart. Instead, it retreated from 0.9950 and fell to 0.99, where it trades at the start of the 11/27 US session. Meanwhile, price is testing and cracking a rising trendline.
Trendline break: A clear break below 0.99 would be a seen as a break below the trendline as well. However the general market direction is sideways since October, so the break of the trendline is not that bearish, that is until we can break the November/October lows by clearing below 0.9870. This break can expose the origin of the trendline, which is the September low at 0.9631.
Without break below 0.9870, the market simply went from bullish to sideways, and has a chance to retrace back toward the middle of the range, around the 0.9950 pivot. A clear break above 0.9950 takes away the bearish bias.