USD/JPY – Stalking Consolidation after a Sharp Rally

USD/JPY Daily Chart 11/26/2012 11:35AM EST

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Bullish market: The USD/JPY has made some key bullish developments recently and has rallied in a very sharp manner since finding support above the 77.00 clip in September. The RSI in the daily chart shows persistent bullish momentum developing. As USD/JPY got to 82.80, the market stalled, and the pair has been consolidating the past 3 sessions (including today – 11/26) trading near the 82.00 handle during the 11/26 US session.

Consolidation length: Since the rally from the 77.12 low to the recent 82.83 high, there was 2 consolidation, or choppy periods, the first of which, was from 9/13 to 10/11 (4 weeks), and the second one from 10/22 to 11/14 (3 weeks). So, if 82.83 is going to hold for another consolidation period, be prepared if it does consolidate the rest of the year.

Retracement targets: The first key fibonacci retracement target at 38.2% is coincident with a previous resistance pivot.Therefore, the 80.60-80.70 area is the the first area to monitor/target, while stalking USD/JPY’s consolidation. 50% near 80.00 is also a valid retracement target. An aggressive target would be the 61.8% retracement at 79.30, but a push below that, and below 79.00 makes the bullish outlook in the longer-term unclear. Staying above 80.00 on the otherhand adds to the clues of a long-term bullish market in development, at least with the 2012 high at 84.19 in sight.


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