AUD/USD 4H Chart 11/9/2012 7:50AM EST


Consolidation: The AUD/USD continues to consolidate after the break above the 1.0395-1.0410 resistance area and finding new resistance at 1.0480. It is not respecting this former resistance area as support. It is trading around 1.0380 as we get the 11/9 US session started. This 100-pip consolidation is so far in a pennant, and still within the context of a bullish market IF the rising trendlines seen in the 4H chart hold and pushes back above 1.04.

Support: These rising trendlines go back to the October low of 1.0148. There is also the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0148-1.0479 rally, at 1.0353. Clearing below 1.0350 would clear these support factors and open up the bearish outlook with sight back to the October low of 1.0148. If we do indeed break below support, a pullback that holds under 1.04 should help confirm the bearish outlook.