EUR/USD 4H Chart 10/12/2012 10:15AM EDT

EUR/USD 10/12/2012 4H chart

This has been another non-directional week for the EUR/USD, as it continues to consolidate under 1.3170, and above 1.28. This week’s low was above last week’s, and the high so far is under last week’s. This is the symptom of a market in congestion. As we get into the last session of the week (10/12 US session), the EUR/USD is holding just under the key psychological handle of 1.30.

A break above 1.30 opens up some bullish intent, but direction outside of the intra-day noise and swings will not be clear until a break either above 1.3170, or below the rising trendline and below 1.28. Still the ability to break above 1.30 gives some breath to the short-term bullish outlook. There will be near-term challenge aroudn 1.3030 by a declining trendline from 1.3170. Then 1.3070 resistance pivot and high from last week.

Above that, we are focused on the 1.3170 and a key declining trendline going back to May 2011. As you can see in the weekly chart, the EUR/USD is indeed at the crossroad, but shoul get out of it in the next couple of weeks.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart 10/12/2012

EUR/USD 10/12/2012 weekly chart