Dollar Goes for a Nine-Month Rally with Fed Talk and NFPs on Tap

Good Morning,

- EU: Waiting for Eurogroup to cut Greece's Gordian knot..?

- $JPY was the best performing major versus $USD over the past month with +0.42% returns, while the $GBP was the worst performing with -3.62%.

- Dollar Goes for a Nine-Month Rally with Fed Talk and NFPs on Tap. Unless things go horribly wrong for the Dollar next week, $DXY will close out its 9th consecutive monthly advance. $USD slumped a 2nd week as traders speculated a jump in consumer spending won't be enough to move the Fed closer to raising rates.

- Goldman Sachs on EUR/USD: The squeeze in EUR/USD has run its course as the rise since Mar. 15th looks like a near complete, notes Goldman Sachs. "The bigger resistance level to be aware of is the 55-dma which is currently up at 1.1202. This particularly moving average has held two previous highs in July/December. It’s also been above price action since the start of the decline at the May ’14 peak. If at any point that level did break, chances of the market basing would increase significantly," GS projects. Bottom line, GS thinks the risk/reward looks better skewed to the downside as ultimately, the focus should be on 1.0286-1.0103.

-It is expected that a special Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers could be held on Tuesday to discuss Greece's reform package as agreed at the EU summit before the visit of Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Berlin. President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said on Wednesday that Tsipras had told him that Athens was "ready to present his reforms by the end of this week, beginning of next week” and the deadline was confirmed by a spokesperson for the Greek government. However, the German government reported on Friday that it had no details about the requested document due to be presented by Monday…

-$XAUUSD halted its remarkable 7-day uptrend on Friday falling as much as 1% from its daily high: 1198.55 (-0.52%). Also, Crude oil declined by as much as 6% on Friday from its daily high marking its first major loss since March 13. US oil rig count plummets again. The latest weekly rig count from oil driller Baker Hughes showed the number of rigs fell by 12 this week to 813, the lowest since the week ending March 4, 2011. Combined oil and gas rigs declined by 21 to 1,048.

-USD Fed's Yellen: Appropriate policy remains accommodative for some time; policy path will evolve as economic conditions evolve. Also says ‘’there is still some way to go to reach maximum employment; she expects growth to be above potential in coming quarters. Finally projected ‘’gradual rise in rates over the few yrs, pace can change, stronger USD hurting exports, sees GDP above potential next quarters.’’

- $CHF was the best performing major versus $USD over the week with +1.39% returns, while the $GBP was the worst performing with -0.47% returns.

- Japan's industrial output fell in February at the fastest pace in eight months due to declines in production of machinery, cars and electronics in a worrying sign that domestic demand could be faltering.

-Greece's Issuer Default Ratings cut to CCC from B by Fitch.

-Here is the top global event risk for this next week: NFP, Greece Poor Liquidity.

Have a nice Week !