In fact we expect the dollar to shine leading up to the December 16 monetary policy decision and to fall once the Fed makes it clear that future rate hikes will follow a very gradual path. This shortened trading week should also be good for the dollar because most of the economic reports on the calendar are expected to highlight the recovery in the U.S. economy. This includes Tuesday Q3 GDP report, which economists believe will be revised higher. Consumer confidence should also benefit from the improvement in the labor market and low energy prices.
EUR/USD briefly dropped below 1.0600 for the first time in 7 months. Although economic activity in the Eurozone gained traction in November, the improvement will not hold the European Central Bank back from increasing stimulus next week. The data does not incorporate the impact of the Paris attacks on the economy and if activity in France was slowing before that, it has only weakened further since then. It is encouraging to see manufacturing and service sector activity in Germany accelerate but with only a week to go before the ECB meeting, the message from the central bank has been consistent and clear - they are ready and willing to step up their support for the economy. In contrast to the Fed, their resolve will be stronger as they attempt to reassure the markets that they could take additional steps if needed. We are still looking for the EUR/USD to test 1.0520 and with a number of important economic reports scheduled for release, it could happen in this shortened but busy holiday trading week.
After rejecting the 200-day SMA, sterling extended its losses against the U.S. dollar. No U.K. economic reports were released today but Bank of England member Kohn warned about the number of fundamentals issues with the U.K. housing market including housing supply and lending terms. This week is relatively light in terms of U.K. data but Mark Carney will be speaking about the Quarterly Inflation Report and Chancellor Osborne will deliver the Autumn statement. If they maintain their cautious tone, we could see further losses in sterling. In fact, we are looking for dovishness and as such expect GBP to underperform EUR and outperform USD this week.
The 2 worst performing currencies today just happened to be last week's 2 best performers. The Australian and New Zealand dollars lost over 0.5% of their value versus the greenback. No major economic reports were released from either country but lower gold and copper prices put pressure on these commodity currencies. Comments from RBA officials will be the main focus for AUD whereas NZD traders can key off October trade data. We don't expect much surprise for AUD and NZD and instead believe the market's demand for U.S. dollars will drive the performance of these currencies.
USD/CAD raced to a high of 1.3435 during the very early North American trading session. This move took the currency pair within 20 pips of its 11 year high. However as long as oil prices hold above $40 a barrel, this resistance level should cap gains in USD/CAD. There are no major Canadian economic reports scheduled for release this week so the focus will be on oil inventory data and its impact on the commodity.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD posts gain, yet dive below 0.6500 amid Aussie CPI, ahead of US GDP
The Aussie Dollar finished Wednesday’s session with decent gains of 0.15% against the US Dollar, yet it retreated from weekly highs of 0.6529, which it hit after a hotter-than-expected inflation report. As the Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades around 0.6495.
USD/JPY finds its highest bids since 1990, approaches 156.00
USD/JPY broke into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 on Wednesday, peaking near 155.40 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen continues to tumble across the broad FX market.
Gold stays firm amid higher US yields as traders await US GDP data
Gold recovers from recent losses, buoyed by market interest despite a stronger US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields. De-escalation of Middle East tensions contributed to increased market stability, denting the appetite for Gold buying.
Ethereum suffers slight pullback, Hong Kong spot ETH ETFs to begin trading on April 30
Ethereum suffered a brief decline on Wednesday afternoon despite increased accumulation from whales. This follows Ethereum restaking protocol Renzo restaked ETH crashing from its 1:1 peg with ETH and increased activities surrounding spot Ethereum ETFs.
Dow Jones Industrial Average hesitates on Wednesday as markets wait for key US data
The DJIA stumbled on Wednesday, falling from recent highs near 38,550.00 as investors ease off of Tuesday’s risk appetite. The index recovered as US data continues to vex financial markets that remain overwhelmingly focused on rate cuts from the US Fed.