Equities lower. Currencies mostly rangebound, with more of the same looking likely today.

Currencies remain fairly rangebound today despite a bad miss by the US Durable Goods data although the equity markets have had a tough session, falling by around 1.5% and giving up all the enthusiasm following the post-FOMC gains. With little data due today, the currencies could again chop sideways while waiting for tomorrow’s important US GDP figure. Today’s focus will be on the German Consumer Confidence and the US Jobless Claims, while from the UK we get the Retail Sales.

EUR/USD: 1.0971

The Euro was underpinned today by the firm German IFO and general weakness in the  dollar, which was not helped by the big miss in the US Durable Goods Orders (-0.4%mm v exp +0.3%). The Euro was unable to maintain its strength though, and after reaching 1.1014 it is now back in the middle of the day’s range, at 1.0960, and with little major data due today it could be another rangebound affair. The Fed’s Bullard & Lockhart are due to speak and might stir the market in NY’s session.

Technically there is little change. Minor rising trend support sits at 1.0950, below which would revisits the lows of the last couple of sessions at 1.0900/1.0890. Below that, further support sits at the minor Fibo level at 1.0870 and then at the 100 HMA at 1.0850. I doubt that we head below here today, but if wrong, further supports would arrive at 1.0800 (minor) and then at  the larger rising trend support at 1.0770, just ahead of the 200 HMA at 1.0734.

Given the rather negative look of the short term indicators a move back above 1.100 (weekly Tenkan), and today’s 1.1013 high looks unlikely in the short term, although the dailies do remain positive. If seen, the 1.1030/40 area is going to be very strong resistance, but above which there is not too much to stop the Euro heading towards 1.1114 (5 March high) and then to 1.1159 (76.4% of 1.1378/1.0461).

Look for a day largely confined by 1.09/1.10 with a mild bias towards the downside.

Economic data highlights will include:

German Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims, Services PMI, Composite PMI.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader    EUR/USD: 4 Hour

…

USD/JPY: 119.55

There is no change today, with the dollar pretty much unchanged after a 119.23/119.82 range.

The dailies and weeklies suggest that lower levels may lie ahead although the 4 hour charts still look mildly positive, so we could see a return to 120.00 taking the dollar back into the channel.

Beyond 120.00 would find resistance at 120.13 (daily Kijun), above which would see another choppy run towards 120.60 (minor) and then on towards 121.00.  A topside break of 121.00 would open up 121.50 and the recent high at 122.02. If/when this level can be overcome, the way would open up for a run towards the 15 July 2007 high at 122.42, and in the longer term, the target of 124.13 (17 June 2007 high) would appear on the horizon but will take time.

To the downside, the weekly Tenkan at 119.40 will provide some support ahead of the minor double bottom, at 119.22. Under here would see strong support at 119.00 (Fibo support at 119.02 (61.8% of 115.85/122.02) and 118.90 (50% of 117.16/122.02)) below which would open the way for a deeper move towards 118.60 and then towards 118.30 (76.4% of 115.85/122.02.

For the most part, it looks like being another choppy and directionless session covered by 119.00/120.00 but once again, looking rather unexciting.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader    USD/JPY: 4 Hour

…

GBP/USD: 1.4873

Cable rose from the session lows of 1.4830, helped on its way by comments from the BOE’s Shafik who said UK rates are likely to rise despite inflation falling to zero. The pound rallied steadily to take out stop stops above 1.4900 and continued to a high at 1.4955 in NY after the weaker than expected US durable goods data once again dented the dollar due to the potential for a delay in any impending US rate hike. The dollar made some ground back later in the day and Cable headed back below 1.4900 to finish at 1.4880, with little  net change over the session, meaning that little has changed technically. Today’s main focus will be on the UK Retail Sales (exp +0.4%mm, +4.7% yy)

The support levels to watch would be at the day’s low, and the 200 HMA, at 1.4830 and then at minor Fibo levels at 1.4805 and at 1.4758, below which would revisit the recent lows at 1.4713 and at 1.4633.

On the topside, the first resistance will be at 1.4900. Above here looks unlikely in the short term, although the dailies remain supportive, so back above today’s 1.4955 high would hint at a return towards the 1.4980/85 area that has recently proved problematic for Cable. Above here though would take a look at 1.5000, above which would trigger stops and could see a run on towards Fibo resistance at 1.5090 (50% pivot of 1.5551/1.4633) and to last week’s spike top at 1.5165.

Look for another session broadly covered by 1.18/1.49.

Economic data highlights will include:

Retail Sales.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader   GBP/USD: 4 Hour

…

USD/CHF: 0.9599

The dollar has regained 0.9600 today and appears to be building some minor positive momentum that could take it back above last week’s spike low at 0.9623 and then on towards 0.9700.

Back below today’s low at 0.9553 would open up the previous session low of 0.0.9535 although this currently looks a little less likely for the coming session. The daily indicators still look rather negative though and suggest that we could head back towards the Fibo support at 0.9436 (38.2% of 0.8332/1.0122) and the 200 DMA at 0.9410.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader    USD/CHF: 4 Hour

…

AUD/USD: 0.7843

The Aud is a little lower today without doing any major damage after a 0.7829/0.7904 range, but is closing near the lows and looks a little heavy. In the absence of any major data it could be a quiet session but the short term indicators do suggest the chance of a slow drift lower.

Nearby support lies at 0.7830, a break of which would see the Aud head towards  the 100 HMA at 0.7805 and then to 0.7775 although this may be a stretch too far today.

The topside will again find sellers at 0.7860, 0.7880 and at 0.7900 although I don’t see this being bothered today. If wrong further advances would suggest a run to the previous session high at 0.7935 above which would open up the chance for a bigger squeeze, with the potential to revisit the Fibo resistance at 0.8010 (61.8% of 0.8294/0.7559) and the pivot level at 0.8025.

Look for 0.7800/0.7875 to cover it for the bulk of the session.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader    AUD/USD: 4 Hour

…

NZD/USD: 0.7604

After making an high at 0.7691 following the US data the Kiwi has fallen steadily, reaching a low of 0.7586 before finishing the session at 0.7600.

The shorter term indicators are looking heavy and further losses, below the session low would take it back towards 0.7576 (23.6% of 0.7175/0.7696) and possibly beyond, towards 0.7545 and 0.7500 (38.2%).

The topside looks a bit more limited today and will see sellers at 0.7630, 0.7650 and 0.7670, although I don’t think we are heading back up here.

Use 0.7575/0.7630 as a guide, with a mild downside bias.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader     NZD/USD: 4 Hour