Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers today
On a day with no real market movers focus will be on developments in Ukraine and the markets will further digest Friday’s job report and Fed comments and the new ECB measures announced last week.
ECB’s Nowotny speaks tonight at 18:15 CET. He’s often quite outspoken, so any comments on the latest steps from the ECB may be interesting.
Later this week focus turns to US retail sales, euro industrial production and Chinese data on CPI and credit growth.
No key movers in Scandinavia.
Selected market news
US stocks recovered early losses on Friday following the much weaker-than-expected US employment report and finished the day up 0.5%. US 10-year yields followed stocks higher during Friday evening. Asian stocks are mostly higher as well this morning.
Fed’s Rosengren (non-voter, dove) called Friday’s payroll report ‘somewhat disappointing’ but at the same time said he was ‘pretty confident we are on the right track’. Interestingly he also added that ‘we should be moving away from providing datebased forward guidance, and instead focus on what incoming data tell us about reaching full employment and 2 percent inflation within a reasonable period’. This reiterates the view of many Fed members recently arguing for a change of the ‘considerable period’ forward guidance to a more data-dependent phrase. It suggests that a change to the Fed guidance already in September is a clear possibility despite the weak job report, see also FT.
The cease-fire between Ukrainian and rebel forces that was struck Friday was shaken by new shelling in Mariupol and around the Donetsk airport on Sunday, see BBC news. However, no further fighting was reported on Sunday.
A YouGov poll on Sunday showed a majority in favour of Scottish independence for the first time in 2014, see Reuters. The vote is taking place in less than two weeks on 18 September.
China’s trade surplus reached another all-time high in August as exports surprised to the upside, rising 9.4% y/y (consensus 9.0% y/y), while imports fell 2.4% y/y (consensus 3.0% y/y).
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