Market movers today
- In terms of data releases we have a very light global calendar. In Germany the GfK consumer confidence for September is released. It is usually not a figure we follow closely but it is a bit interesting that consumer confidence has continued to increase in 2014, whereas business surveys have in general trended lower since January. The development in consumer confidence is in line with our view that private consumption in Germany is doing well, although the economy contracted in Q2.
Selected market news
It seems like ‘optimism’ – at least for now - is winning in the tug-of-war in global financial markets between optimism about the US economy and fears over the Ukrainian- Russian crisis. Or, said in another way, the global stock markets continue to inch higher and in the case of the US stock markets we continue to see new record highs on a daily basis these days. Yesterday the S&P500 for the first time ever closed above 2000.
This morning the positive sentiment continues in the Asian stock markets, which are trading moderately up across the board. The stock market rally is being helped by optimism about the US economy.
Yesterday data showed that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August, up from 90.3 in July. This is the highest level since October 2007 – so at least for the US consumer it could look as if the Great Recession has finally come to an end. Strong US data on durable goods orders also helped lift the sentiment in the US and global stock markets overnight.
On a slightly less positive note, worries in the markets continue over the situation in eastern Ukraine where fighting continues between rebels and the Ukrainian military. There was, however, a bit of positive news yesterday, as Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko met in Minsk. Even though there apparently was no break-through in the talks, both presidents commented positive on the meetings and signalled that further consultations over the crisis would continue.
In the currency markets EUR/USD continues to inch lower, as the markets are betting on new measures to ease monetary policy in the euro-zone and at the same time continue to become more optimistic about the outlook for the US economy. This is also reflected in the continued widening of short-term bond yields in the US and the euro-zone.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops below 1.0800 after German Retail Sales data
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling pressure and trades below 1.0800 after the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 1.9% MoM in February. Resurgent US Dollar demand is adding to the downside in the pair. US data are next in focus.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2600 amid market caution
GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.2600 in European trading on Thursday. The hawkish tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller keeps the US Dollar afloat amid a cautious trading environment ahead of key US data releases and the Good Friday trading lull.
Gold price holds strength ahead of US core PCE inflation
Gold price holds onto gains near $2,200 in Thursday’s European session. The precious metal exhibits firm footing ahead of the United States core PCE Price Index data for February, which will be published on Friday.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.