The Bank of England meeting will likely be a non-event

Market movers today

• Another day with few releases of interest on the global scene. French industrial production is expected to rise moderately by 0.2% m/m in February underlining a slow French recovery. Italian industrial production is expected to decline 0.5% m/m in February following a rise of 1.0% m/m in January.
  

• The Bank of England meeting will likely be a non-event. There will most likely be no changes to policy and not even a statement to chew on.

• US initial jobless claims will give further input to how the US is recovering in Q2. The trend has been fairly positive over the past month, as claims have gone lower following the increase in the first months of 2014. Consensus is for a decline to 320k from 326k last week.

• The ECB publishes its monthly report today. Furthermore, chief economist and executive board member Peter Praet speaks in Washington.

• Greece is expected to come to the market today, launching its first sovereign bond issue in almost four years. The pricing will be closely followed.

• In Scandinavia, inflation data are due. For more on Scandi markets see page 2.

Selected market news

Soft tone in minutes from last Fed meeting. The minutes from the 18-19 March FOMC meeting put a softer twist to the shift in forward guidance, revealing concern among Fed officials that their projections might signal a too hawkish stance. Despite Chairman Yellen’s remarkable comment at the press conference that the period from the end of QE to the first hike might be ‘around six months’, the minutes showed no record of such discussion.

Further details emerge on China stimulus plans. This morning, the Chinese Premier Li has ruled out major stimulus to fight short-term dips in growth in China’s economy. At an investment forum held on the island of Hainan, Li stressed that job creation was the main policy priority, and that it does not matter if growth falls a little below the official target of 7.5% for this year (see Reuters). In our view the implications of a mini-stimulus package is that manufacturing PMIs could bottom out a bit sooner than we have previously expected and we expect growth to reach 7.4% this year.

Market sentiment supported by Fed minutes. Stocks rose following the release of the Fed minutes that pointed in a more dovish direction than previously expected. However, US stocks had advanced earlier in the session, supported by a good start to the Q1 earnings season. Asian stocks took their cue from the performance on US bourses, despite the soft trade data released from China this morning. The data showed both exports and imports undershooting market expectations, but may have been subject to distortions.