Quiet Start; Greece, BOJ & FOMC Eyed

KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (BST) :

11:00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 4 v 0

OVERNIGHT:

USD trades on the back foot after another round of poor US data (durable goods this time), and hence setting up market expectations for a poor Q1 GDP print and a doveish tilt to the FOMC statement.

USDJPY trades back below the familiar 119 handle, anticipate the pair to remain content sitting inside the 118­120 range going into this week’s risk events, interbank reports suggest real money still noted buyers in dips. 119.20/30 should now provide some resistance, while support remains at 118.80 and 50 initially.

Very quiet EURUSD Asian session as players remain lightly positioned well aware what lies ahead later in the week from event perspective opportunities. For now would expect short term price sentiment to remain range bound and continue to be reflected by Greek developments hitting the wires with little in way of economic releases today. Initial resistance comes in at 1.0900 for now with 1.0820 and 1.0760 providing pivotal support levels.

Still no sign of pre­-election jitters in the GBP market, GBPUSD surges above the 1.5080/1.5100 resistance as US data continues to disappoint. The path of least resistance for the week remains higher, and a close above 1.5200 should only encourage cable bulls ( doubt there are many of them at the moment). .

PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:

EUR: While 1.0760 contains downside expect 1.09 test en rout to fourth attempt at 1.10, below 1.0740 refocuses on 1.0620
GBP: While 1.5080/60 contains downside reactions target 1.5350 equality corrective objective
JPY: While 118.70/90 contains downside target 121.00 en route to retest of year to date highs, only below 118.30 concerns bullish view
CAD: While 124.50 contains upside target 120 test
AUD: While .7860/80 contains upside anticipate third test of key .7550 failure here opens the bearish target of .72, above .7880 alleviates downside pressure

KEY TRADES: