Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is range bound slightly below 1.12
“The progress achieved over the past three years to stabilize and strengthen the euro area is real.”
- Mario Draghi, ECB President (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
EUR/USD failed to push itself below the 200-day SMA on Thursday, even though bears had attempted to dominate the market. It seems that the price is largely undecided with respect to the future development. Being located near the apex of the triangle pattern, the rate is also capped by strong resistance and support zones from above and below, respectively. Thus, our outlook will remain neutral, as long as EUR/USD is located below 1.1260 or above the 1.1140 mark.
Traders’ Sentiment
The share of bulls fell from 51% to 49% by Friday morning. Alongside, the number of long pending orders in 100-pip range from the spot bounced back from the neutral level of 50%, to reach the 38% mark today.
GBP/USD stuck between 1.51 and 23.60% Fibo
“While a downbeat reading [of the US Payrolls] may cause relatively-straightforward reaction of dollar selling, an upbeat figure won’t necessarily lead to a higher dollar.”
- Citigroup (based on Market Watch)
Pair’s Outlook
The British Pound retested the 23.60% Fibo, but remained relatively unchanged over the day, having added only two pips. In spite of the Cable’s attempts to edge higher today, the outlook remains bearish. The 23.60% Fibo keeps preventing the Sterling from climbing higher this week, thus, a chance of the GBP/USD reaching this area persist. The base case scenario, however, is a fall towards the 1.51 major level or the immediate support around 1.5025, namely the Bollinger band or the weekly S1. Moreover, technical indicators shifted from neutral to bearish, suggesting a decline is nigh.
Traders’ Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment returned to its Wednesday’s level of 63%, while the ratio of the buy and the sell orders is now equal to one.
USD/JPY keeps testing the weekly PP
“A very bullish report [of the Payrolls] would of course have a big impact. But the Fed may not make its rates decision on employment data alone.”
- Barclays (based on Reuters)
Pair’s Outlook
Despite experiencing some volatility on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair remained relatively unchanged. Ultimately, the Greenback closed trade in front of the monthly PP, but further efforts to appreciate might be prevented. The pair struggled to rise above the 120.00 major level, as it is bolstered by a resistance cluster, represented by the 20-day SMA, weekly and monthly PPS. Furthermore, technical indicators retain their bearish signals; however, the US Payrolls data could still stimulate a rally towards the 120.33 psychological level, the pinnacle of the resistance cluster.
Traders’ Sentiment
There are now 71% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Buck, whereas the share of buy orders edged up from 40 to 56%.
Gold keeps trading in red, ready to test 1,105
“Our call for gold prices to touch $1,050 at year-end is still very much intact on the grounds for a Fed fund rate hike before the year is up.”
- OCBC (based on CNBC)
Pair’s Outlook
On Thursday the yellow metal posted a minor decrease in price, but overall daily losses were extended to the fifth day in a row. The only bullish attempt to return back above the 23.6% retracement and 55-day SMA was strongly rejected. We expect to see the 1,105 level (weekly S2) being tested on Friday, and a lot will depend on the US jobs report later in the day. Positive numbers may trigger losses down to the 1,100 mark, which is guarded by the Sep low, lower Bollinger band and the long term downtrend line. Failure here would allow for a drop down to the monthly S1 at 1,089.
Traders’ Sentiment
Distribution between bullish and bearish market participants at the SWFX market continued to improve in favour of the former. The total share of the longs jumped four percentage points yesterday, up from 52% to 56%.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD rises to two-day high ahead of Aussie CPI
The Aussie Dollar recorded back-to-back positive days against the US Dollar and climbed more than 0.59% on Tuesday, as the US April S&P PMIs were weaker than expected. That spurred speculations that the Federal Reserve could put rate cuts back on the table. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6488 as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
Gold price cautious despite weaker US Dollar and falling US yields
Gold retreats modestly after failing to sustain gains despite fall in US Treasury yields, weaker US Dollar. XAU/USD struggles to capitalize following release of weaker-than-expected S&P Global PMIs, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts.
Ethereum ETF issuers not giving up fight, expert says as Grayscale files S3 prospectus
Ethereum exchange-traded funds theme gained steam after the landmark approval of multiple BTC ETFs in January. However, the campaign for approval of this investment alternative continues, with evidence of ongoing back and forth between prospective issuers and the US SEC.
Australia CPI Preview: Inflation set to remain above target as hopes of early interest-rate cuts fade
An Australian inflation update takes the spotlight this week ahead of critical United States macroeconomic data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release two different inflation gauges on Wednesday.