GBP/USD attempts to surpass 1.52

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD erodes monthly PP

“In the short term, the euro will probably firm a bit more.”

- Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Towards the end of last week, EUR/USD erased important resistance at 1.0811, represented by the monthly pivot point. It allows the pair to build up a prolonged upside correction in the short-term, with a target at 55-day SMA (1.0938 at the moment). However, this level is strengthened by weekly R1 and the upper Bollinger band from the north, and these lines altogether are capable in holding bulls' intentions. Moreover, April highs are located around 1.1040, and they will put additional selling pressure on the Euro.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The total number of bullish opened positions at the SWFX market dropped back below 50% over the weekend to reach only 45% (-10%) in the morning on Monday.

GBP/USD attempts to surpass 1.52

“April’s MPC minutes (released on Wednesday) showed that the MPC has become slightly less concerned by the downside risks to the inflation outlook. Nonetheless we think there will be little pressure on it to raise rates this year.”

- Capital Economics (based on WBP Online)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The Cable exceeded expectations, as it edged up a lot higher at the end of last week. The initial resistance was easily pierced, as well as the next cluster at 1.5156. Ultimately, the GBP/USD pair stabilised at 1.5186. Today, the Sterling is likely to extends its rally and overcome the 1.52 level, while immediate resistance rests at 1.5234, represented by the Bollinger band. Nonetheless, technical indicators keep showing mixed signs.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Market sentiment of SWFX traders remains bearish, with 41% of all positions being long. The portion of buy commands, however, added eight percentage points. The orders now account for 53% of the market.

USD/JPY aims to climb over 119

“I think the range-bound trading will be continuing for the dollar/yen, with the upside at 120 and the downside at 118.”

- Kaneo Ogino, Global-info Co (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  On Friday, the US Dollar slumped more than anticipated. The two closest supports could not stop the USD/JPY pair from declining. As a result, the Greenback crossed the 119 level and closed trade at 118.96. A slight correction is expected to take place on Monday. The nearest resistance now lies around 119.20, represented by the weekly PP and the 100-day SMA, although the pair is unlikely to climb up so high. The target correction level is 119.10, while technical studies still give off mixed signals.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Market sentiment maintains its bullish trend at 72% (previously 74%), whereas the number of purchase orders is now in the majority. The buy commands now take up 53% of the market.

XAU/USD tests 2013 low for first time since March

“The prospect for a less than hawkish change to the FOMC statement would likely remove some of the near-term pressure that has been baked into the gold price.”

- HSBC (based on The Economic Times)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Being strongly influenced by downward-sloping 55 and 20-day SMAs, the yellow metal slumped significantly during last trading session of the previous week. Weakness of Gold allowed bears to push the bullion through monthly PP and 2013 low at 1,183 and 1,180, respectively. The price has only been stopped by the lower Bollinger band at 1,175, which is also fuelling the bullion with some bullish momentum on Monday. In the short-term, we may observe some bullishness in the form of recovery; however, the longer-term outlook for Gold remains bearish.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Bulls have a substantial advantage over bears at the SWFX market, as they are holding 73% of all opened trades in the morning on Monday, down one percentage point during past 72 hours.