Technical Analysis
EUR/USD fails to violate Bollinger band for second day
“The dollar has been trading on the stronger side. I’m looking for confirmation that the economy was getting better toward the end of the first quarter. The market is anticipating good figures.”
- strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
Despite falling for a sixth day in a row, the Euro failed to drop beyond Bollinger band at 1.0550 on Monday. Meanwhile, it was a second attempt to breach this support. Overall, EUR/USD went marginally to the south during past 24 hours and remained range bound between 1.055 and 1.06. Technical indicators are completely unchanged from Monday, with daily studies being mixed and weekly ones sending bearish signals. In case the pair crosses 1.05 on Tuesday, it is going to target the weekly S1 at 1.0434 next.
Traders’ Sentiment
Distribution between bulls and bears at the SWFX market is the most positive in more than three months, as longs are currently holding 56% of all opened positions, up 2% during past 24 hours.
GBP/USD experiences a setback
“The UK will release several inflation-related figures on Tuesday, expected overall weak, which therefore should prevent the British Pound from advancing further.”
- (based on FX Street)
Pair’s Outlook
The Sterling keeps surprising, as it edged up on Monday, instead of slumping versus the US Dollar. Even though there were in fact fluctuations to the downside, the Cable still added 31 pips, but was unable to erase Friday’s losses. Moreover, the 1.47 area was not reclaimed, and the pair is likely to retreat further away from this level today. The technical studies remain mixed, but a fall at least to 1.46 is a high possibility amid the fear of deflation in the UK.
Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX traders’ outlook towards the Pound worsened again, with long positions now taking only 42% of the market (previously 43%). The number of buy orders decreased as well, now they account for 46% of all commands.
USD/JPY to negate some losses
“U.S. retail sales will be critical for currencies. Given the recent negative trend, markets would react poorly if the 1.1 percent increase expected is missed.”
- ANZ (based on CNBC)
Pair’s Outlook
USD/JPY demonstrated increasing levels of volatility yesterday, with the difference between the open and close exceeding 100 pips. The US Dollar rose during the first half of the day, but in the end it closed lower, just above 120 yen. As for Tuesday, the Buck is expected to rebound, while the nearest significant resistance lies at 120.64, namely the upper Bollinger band. Meanwhile, the technical indicators are still giving mixed signals.
Traders’ Sentiment
Although not as strong as yesterday, but the market sentiment among SWFX traders remains bullish. Today 70% of all positions are long. At the same time, the gap between the buy and sell orders narrowed to 54% vs 56%.
XAU/USD is range bound between 1,206 and 1,196
“The cycle of the strong U.S. dollar has not ended. We are not very bullish about gold's price performance this year.”
- Industrial Bank in Shanghai (based on Reuters)
Pair’s Outlook
Even though trading range of XAU/USD remained under pressure between to technical lines on Monday, Gold still managed to stay within its boundaries during the day. Following a jump up to the 55-day SMA on Friday, this level pushed the bullion back towards the 20-day SMA yesterday, where the metal closed trading session just below 1,200. Currently, there are two dense areas around present market price of Gold. In case it falls below 1,191, then we should observe a sell-off down to 1,180 (2013 low) in the near-term. Otherwise, a climb above 1,211 will provide bulls with momentum to send the precious metal as high as 1,223 (monthly R1).
Traders’ Sentiment
Bulls have a substantial advantage over bears at the SWFX market, as the former ones are holding 72% of all opened trades in the morning on Tuesday, down one percentage point during past 24 hours of trading.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops below 1.0800 after German Retail Sales data
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling pressure and trades below 1.0800 after the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 1.9% MoM in February. Resurgent US Dollar demand is adding to the downside in the pair. US data are next in focus.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2600 amid market caution
GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.2600 in European trading on Thursday. The hawkish tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller keeps the US Dollar afloat amid a cautious trading environment ahead of key US data releases and the Good Friday trading lull.
Gold price bulls keenly await US PCE Price Index on Friday before placing fresh bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to make it through the $2,200 mark on Thursday and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early part of the European session.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.