GBP/USD approaches 2014 low

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD plunges to 1.29

“We think there's certainly plenty more scope for weakness in the euro.”

- Barclays (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  As a rhetoric of the ECB turned out to be more dovish than expected, EUR/USD plummeted more than 200 pips yesterday. Neither the support at 1.31, represented by the 2013 Sep low, nor the demand at 1.30 (monthly S1 and weekly S3) were able to stop the bears. Right now the pair is probing the monthly S2 at 1.29, but will most likely keep on falling, presumably down to the last year’s low at 1.2750.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The bullish sentiment with respect to the Euro has somewhat strengthened since the last report, being that the percentage of longs has risen from 58 to 60%. As for the orders, the sell ones are in a majority with a 62% share.

GBP/USD approaches 2014 low

“There is a general perception in the market that Scotland breaking away as an independent country will lead to a higher debt burden to the U.K. and that is negative for the pound.”

- Rabobank International (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  Strong Dollar does not allow the Pound to commence a recovery, which is implied by the monthly technical indicators. And even though considering the current downward momentum the chances are slim, the Sterling may try to rally by using the 2014 low at 1.6250 as a springboard. In case this support is violated, there will hardly be any levels capable of halting the sell-off until the exchange rate descends down to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5850.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The bulls have enhanced their advantage over the bears, being that the former now take up 66% o the market. Concerning the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there is no difference between the amounts of buy (46%) and sell (54%) ones.

USD/JPY surpasses 2014 high

“It's not just a dollar-buying market. There's a solid story on the other side too, and that makes it easier to buy the dollar against the yen.”

- State Street Global Markets (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/JPY continues to advance, and it has already managed to post new yearly highs. If the price manages to gain a solid foothold above 105.50 in the nearest future, there will be a high probability of it moving towards the 2008 high at 111 in the long run. For now a majority of the technical indicators on all relevant time-frames are in favour of a bullish scenario, with the closest target being the monthly R2 at 106.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  While the sentiment of the SWFX traders remains neutral towards USD/JPY (46% of positions are long and 54% are short), the portion of commands to purchase the U.S. Dollar has been rapidly increasing—from 56% yesterday to 69% today.

USD/CHF is now threatening 0.9450

“The market is increasingly positioning for a change in Fed language and that will keep the dollar in the ascendancy and the ECB’s move overnight adds to that conviction.”

- National Australia Bank (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/CHF disregarded the ‘sell’ signals on the monthly chart and soared through a dense supply area at 0.9250, which was mainly created by the 2013 Q4 high and monthly R1. Now there should be no more significant obstacles until the monthly R3 that in turn safeguards the next most likely target, namely the 2013 Sep high at 0.9450. But in the longer-term perspective the pair may choose to aim for 0.9750—the 2013 Q3 high.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  At the moment the amounts of long and short positions are perfectly equal, meaning the market is currently undecided. A similar situation is observed with the pending orders, where 47% o them are to buy and 53% are to sell the Buck.