GBP/USD reaches a long-term support line

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

EUR/USD gradually slips from a 2012’s high

“There is still some room for euro to go higher, but the road upwards will be characterized by bumps, pauses and even by corrections.”

- Commerzbank (based on Reuters

• Pair’s Outlook

  The major currency pair gradually depreciates from a 2012’s high, but bearish sentiments still are very weak and don’t demonstrate any correction momentum. The pair perfectly moves in the upper part of the Bollinger bands. In case of a down-side scenario, the price has to overcome a 1.3402/1.3373 level, where the weekly PP and monthly R1 are located, and after that 1.3327, where the 20-day SMA merges with the weekly S1. In an up-side scenario, the pair will face difficulties at 1.3556, where the monthly R2 intersects the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  SWFX market traders have bearish sentiments, since 34% of positions are long and 66% are short. Pending orders market is rather neutral, as both sides have equal shares.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD reaches a long-term support line

“The prospect of more activist monetary policy is not an encouraging one for GBP, certainly not as it comes on top of a host of other negative developments - an economy that is triple-dipping, a government that is struggling to cut its deficit.”

- JPMorgan (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The Cable exhibits significant bearish sentiments, as the price depreciates without any corrections. Yesterday, the pair has reached a 11-month support line at 1.5707, which might be strong enough support to halt the recent price depreciation. Also, an oversold situation is very possible, as the RSI indicator implies increased risk. The index has a value of 24 in a daily graph and 39 in a weekly graph.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Sharp depreciation of the Sterling attracts a lot of traders, as the buy side has 71% of all opened positions and bearish side has only 29% of positions. Pending orders market is gently bullish, as 52% of orders are long and 48% are short.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY little changed

“I still think dollar/yen will head higher. In the near term, I think the dollar will trade between 90 yen to 92 yen. Everyone is only thinking about where to buy (the dollar) on dips.”

- Trader for a European bank in Tokyo (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/JPY pair has made a bearish correction yesterday, as the price has reached the 423% Fibonacci level at 90.92 and the Bollinger line. The currency pair is still in a very strong bullish trend, despite the fact that the RSI indicator has significant values in various timeframes, especially 82 points in a weekly graph. Therefore, any short position would mean unrewarded elevated risk.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  SWFX market traders are slightly bearish on USD/JPY pair, as 43% of positions are long and 57% of positions are short. Pending orders segment is bullish, as 78% of waiting orders are for a long position and only 22% are for a short position.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF breaches the 20-day SMA

“We’re going to get a pretty clear reiteration from the Fed that quantitative easing will continue for quite some time. The strong dollar story is a tough case to make right now.“

- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/CHF pair experiences bearish sentiments during the last few weeks and has already reached the 20-day SMA. Settlement beneath it would open a free area till a 0.9236 level, where the 55-day SMA is located. Since the pair is mostly depreciating, but it still remaining above the 20-day and 55-day SMAs, being a bullish signal, the current situation is rather vague and position opening would be associated with heightened uncertainty.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The majority of USD/CHF pair traders are bulls, since 86% of opened position are long and only 14% are short. Waiting orders market situation is bullish, as 59% of orders are for a long position and 41% for a short position.